Skip to Main Content
PCMag editors select and review products independently. If you buy through affiliate links, we may earn commissions, which help support our testing.

CES 2017 Provides a Glimpse of Our Self-Driving Future

Self-driving cars were big at CES 2017, but when will they arrive? I talked to Ford about making driverless cars a reality.

January 9, 2017
2017 Self-Driving Ford Fusion

At CES 2017, self-driving cars were a hot topic. Faraday Future revealed its Tesla challenger, the FF91, while Chrysler, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, and Nissan all had anonymous vehicle announcements.

CES 2017 Bug But the big question is, when will truly self-driving cars be in use or available to purchase? That's what I asked Ford executives before CES kicked off.

Ford is actively developing its own self-driving car, and has what I believe to be the most realistic timeline for delivering its own autonomous vehicle. Although Tesla has rolled out Autopilot and Google, Uber, and others are testing self-driving cars on the roads now, we are still a few years away from truly driverless cars motoring around public streets.

As one can guess, the real road block to getting self-driving cars on the road in this decade will be regulators. Ford said it and others in the industry have been lobbying lawmakers for rules that will allow self-driving vehicles to be on the road safely. But nothing moves fast in Congress; Ford's best guess is that we could have rules that would allow for the launch a set of fleet vehicles by 2021 or 2022.

Interestingly, Ford believes that the first wave of self-driving cars will be dispatched on-demand before it and others start selling autonomous vehicles directly to customers, which will provide it with a great deal of data.

Ford's rivals appear to have a similar outlook, hence GM's $500 million investment in Lyft—which sees an end to private car ownership by 2025—Uber's partnership with Volvo, and Apple's $1 billion investment in China's Didi Chuxing.

This rollout strategy is interesting and important, as it lays the groundwork for a completely new approach to our driving options and needs. The idea of having a fleet of vehicles at anyone's disposal makes the issue of owning a vehicle a real question.

Recommended by Our Editors

In my case, it would be a cost of ownership versus the cost of using an autonomous driving vehicle for all of my personal transportation needs. Right now, I lease my car for about $4,500 a year plus gas, and I drive about 13,000 miles a year. For this to work for me, the car would have to get to me quickly.

While you may hear more aggressive timetables than what Ford is suggesting, I suspect its forecast is pretty accurate. I would really like to have either a fleet of vehicles at my disposal or even own one myself, but I don't see that happening until the beginning of the next decade.

Get Our Best Stories!

Sign up for What's New Now to get our top stories delivered to your inbox every morning.

This newsletter may contain advertising, deals, or affiliate links. Subscribing to a newsletter indicates your consent to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. You may unsubscribe from the newsletters at any time.


Thanks for signing up!

Your subscription has been confirmed. Keep an eye on your inbox!

Sign up for other newsletters

TRENDING

About Tim Bajarin

Columnist

Tim Bajarin

Tim Bajarin is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts, and futurists covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin has been with Creative Strategies since 1981 and has provided research to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry including IBM, Apple, Xerox, Compaq, Dell, AT&T, Microsoft, Polaroid, Lotus, Epson, Toshiba, and numerous others. Mr. Bajarin is known as a concise, futuristic analyst, credited with predicting the desktop publishing revolution three years before it hit the market, and identifying multimedia as a major trend in written reports as early as 1984. He has authored major industry studies on PC, portable computing, pen-based computing, desktop publishing, multimedia computing, mobile devices, and IOT. He serves on conference advisory boards and is a frequent featured speaker at computer conferences worldwide.

Read Tim's full bio

Read the latest from Tim Bajarin