It has been a curious few days regarding the iPhone 8. Reports coming out of the supply chain offer different opinions on the production line’s starting date. There are indications that it will begin earlier than normal, while others suggest more time will be spent before committing to production. Given the expectation of a launch in early September, this offers Apple a difficult decision.
Deciding when to start will have a material impact on the sale of the presumptively titled iPhone 8. Going earlier in the year allows for more stock at the launch of the keenly anticipated smartphone - with the potential benefits of achieving a record-breaking release. It offers more time to test the production units inside Cupertino and if there were to be any issues arising from production there would be time to course-correct and still have a significant volume of stock available at launch.
Going later means more time to research and perfect techniques, but available stock in September at launch would be lower.
No matter when you start, once production is under way you have locked in the design of the new smartphone, the techniques to be used and the hardware that will feature on the device. If that new hardware explores the edge of innovation it runs the risk of creating headaches such as the iPhone 6’s screen being too large because of a faulty backlight requiring production to be halted and the component redesigned.
Pushing innovation means taking a bigger risk with the entire production. As Samsung found out to its cost last year with the Galaxy Note 7, being aggressive in terms of technology and production makes an error more likely and more costly. The South Korean company could fall back on other smartphone models, tablet devices and both the consumer electronics and component manufacturing side of the business. Apple does not have that luxury with reports of up to seventy percent of the company revenue built around the iPhone.
If I had to put my money down on what was happening, i would say that Apple he’s decided to start the production earlier and go with a more restrained design than many were hoping or expecting. That means no curved screens, no ‘at a distance’ wireless charging and finally following the rest of the smartphone world into the vibrant world of OLED screens.
When the iPhone rocks up with something new, the chances are that a similar feature or technique has been seen in competing hardware and Apple has refined the tide. Iteration and implementation are its superpowers, not innovation. Faced with the choice of going with a major update and new technology that has more risk or going with a smaller more incremental update with technology that has been proven in the commercial space that offers lower risk, Tim Cook’s Apple has historically chosen the safer option.
Given that the lower risk model can allow for more stock to be built up ahead of the September launch, the iPhone sales over the last three years have been relatively flat and given the expected demand for something new after three visually static years, I think Cook will want to have as many handsets available at launch as possible.
The question is if the smaller and safer changes to the hardware coupled with Apple’s marketing power and adulation will be enough to create record-breaking sales on what is looking to be the most expensive incremental update in the history of the iPhone.
Now read more about the lack of innovation in the new iPhone...
