The Nasdaq composite looked poised to stage a strong weekly reversal — typical action for a market in a confirmed uptrend — with less than an hour left in Friday's session. With big-cap techs including Apple (AAPL) (still in a long-term uptrend), Nvidia (NVDA) (benefiting from fresh bullish analyst comments) and Alphabet (GOOGL) (forming a new, better base), the tech-rich composite rallied more than 0.6% in Friday afternoon trading.
X That well surpasses the S&P 500's less than 0.3% advance as of 3 p.m. ET. At 6494, the Nasdaq composite held a 1% gain for the week, vs. a 0.6% advance by the 500.
The Dow Jones industrial average, weighed down in part by losses in UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and McDonald's (MCD), was still virtually flat. At 22,379, the 30-component Dow industrials still held on to a thin 0.1% weekly gain. The Dow transports looked headed for an eighth straight gain, rising 0.2%.
Volume is running lower vs. the same time Thursday on both main exchanges. Winners are beating losers on both exchanges by more than a 3-to-2 ratio. That's bullish for equities.
Earlier this week, McDonald's triggered a sell signal for those who bought at the stock's early-April breakout at 130.10 because the stock fell sharply below its 50-day moving average in heavy volume. Watch to see if the biggest restaurant chain by stores and revenue can regain that medium-term support level and set up in a new base.
Back to Apple, the juggernaut in smartphones, personal computers, tablets and digital services has shown disappointing volume in its rebound after getting knocked by sellers hard following its debut of its next-generation phones. You'd prefer to see the stock rise in heavy volume, not in thin trading as seen Wednesday.
While Apple rose 0.7% that session, volume was 14% below average. Contrast that with Apple's sell-offs on Sept. 20, 21 and 22, in which shares traded hands at paces of 88%, 32% and 62% above the 50-day average, respectively.
With the pullback in Apple extending into Week 5 on Monday, chances are growing that Apple could set up a new base next to its second-stage flat base that featured a 156.75 buy point. The first base finished up in early January, and Apple broke out of a beautiful cup with handle at 118.12 on Jan. 6-9.
A new base forming would still keep the base count at two. Stocks tend to succeed in breakouts from first-, second- or third-stage bases vs. fourth-, fifth- or even sixth-stage ones.
Google operator Alphabet is working on a new cup-shaped base after its attempt to clear a 994.09 entry in a flawed double-bottom base lasted just days.
Notice how Alphabet's double bottom was formed in less than seven weeks before the breakout, a flaw. However, its latest chart action is more sound. The new base is more rounded, and the stock has held above the lows of the prior flawed double bottom.
Despite getting tagged by the EU with a stiff fine for alleged monopolistic behavior related to its online shopping pages, Alphabet is likely to continue its streak of respectable double-digit growth. Earnings in Q3 are seen rising 15% to $8.32 a share on a 21% jump in revenue to $27.16 billion.
In each of the past five quarters, Alphabet's top line grew 20% to 22% vs. year-ago levels.
Nvidia, back above a second-stage flat-base entry of 174.66, is helping keep chip-related shares on top of the market heap in terms of five-day performance.
The chipmaker for hot growth markets — including data centers, video games, self-driving vehicles, artificial intelligence and deep learning — is still on track to post significant profit and sales gains despite already delivering mind-blowing increases over the past year and a half.
In March 2016, Nvidia broke out of an early-stage cup with handle at 33.16, ahead of adjusted EPS increases of 46% (in Q1 of fiscal 2017, which ended in April 2016), 720%, 89%, 183%, 126% and 124%. In the October-ending fiscal third quarter, analysts expect Nvidia's earnings to rise 13% to 94 cents a share and revenue to go up 18% to $2.36 billion.
Cypress Semiconductor (CY), part of IBD's Electronics-Semiconductor Manufacturing industry group, gained 1.7% and moved past a nearly nine-week cup-with-handle buy point of 14.89. However, volume is running around 9% below normal pace. You'd like to see volume surge a minimum 40% to 50% above the 50-day average, and much more for small and midcap stocks.
However, in a few cases, a leading stock can show a big pickup in turnover several days, or even weeks, after breakout day.
Cypress, which specializes in touch-screen microcontrollers and system-on-a-chip circuits, has marked earnings acceleration in three of the past four quarters. Earnings dropped 12% to 15 cents a share in the third quarter of 2016, then jumped 15%, 86% and 75% in the past three quarters.
Revenue rose 13%, 18%, 27% and 32% over the same time frame.
Cypress' IBD ratings are not as good as many of its peers in the chip sector, partly because it is a turnaround play. However, a B Accumulation/Distribution Rating, as seen in IBD Stock Checkup, is positive.
The profit forecasts for Cypress, based in San Jose, Calif., look sunny. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters see earnings rising 63% to 80 cents a share this year and another 41% to $1.13 in 2018. That would send Cypress' bottom line to its highest level since it earned $1.25 a share in 2011.
Applied Materials (AMAT), is No. 9 in the IBD 50. The chip-equipment giant stormed higher for a third straight session, rising more than 2% to 52.01 in huge volume and is now extended from a 47.69 early entry in a cup-type consolidation. It announced a big share buyback plan earlier in the week.
Wait to see if the stock pulls back within the 5% buy zone, or up to 50.07.
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