First, let’s say that this is a companion piece to my fellow Forbes contributor Ewan Spence’s excellent recent post, ‘New iPhone X Leaks Reveals Apple's Peak iPhone Nightmare’.
Now, Ewan certainly knows his onions, and his Apples, but I see the recent leaks leading to a different potential outcome from the way Ewan analyses it.
I agree with Ewan, stock shortages are incredibly serious when it’s your flagship product that’s at stake. And if, as he says, that leads to two successive quarters of falling unit sales, that ain’t good either.
But I’m going to stick my neck out and say I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Pre-orders haven’t begun yet for the X, so we’ll know soon enough exactly how scarce it’s going to be in relation to its desirability. Of course, there’s an element of uncertainty here: if within hours of pre-orders beginning Apple’s website shows expected wait times of weeks, is that because there are hardly enough Xs needed to satisfy even ordinary demand? Or does it mean there’s great availability but even greater demand? There’s a wide spectrum of possibilities here and we must wait for other indicators, such as statements by Apple or phone networks of, say, record-breaking pre-orders and so on to know more.
But as soon as the Apple site shows waiting times of weeks or more, I predict something else will happen: people will start choosing another phone instead of the X.
I think it’s hard to overstate the pent-up demand, among iPhone current users especially, for an upgrade.
And if the X is suddenly seen to be a long way off, I believe plenty of people will choose the iPhone 8 or iPhone 8 Plus instead. Shortages of one iPhone will likely see a sudden, full-on cascade of orders for the other two 2017 models.
Sales of these seem to have been put on ice by consumers a little while those who have been waiting a long time to upgrade – something that even Apple’s CEO acknowledged has held things back – hang on for the X. The uptick of sales for the 8 and 8 Plus caused by lack of availability of the X will probably be sudden and emphatic.
What will Apple think of all this? The company has always said it’s cool with one Apple product’s sales cannibalizing another, just so long as customers stick with the brand. And let’s remember that this year’s choice of iPhones is the widest by far the company has ever ranged. Small-screen fans can choose the iPhone SE, and budget considerations will determine for many whether to choose an iPhone 6s, 7 or 8 and their Plus variants.
In fact, the exotically high entry cost for iPhone X (at $999, the highest sticker price yet for an iPhone) will play in Apple’s favour when it comes to selling its other handsets. ‘I’m sure it’s great but I can pick up an iPhone 8 Plus and save $200 into the bargain,’ customers may say.
Ultimately, it all comes back to one of the key things that Apple has going for it and which remains undiminished: design.
The design of the iPhone X is stunning, even if the notch at the top of the all-screen front divides opinion.
And though the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus have bezels bigger than many flagship handsets (not that either of these two is the flagship), the styling of these phones continues to be a hugely popular, if now rather familiar, look.
For millions of customers wanting to upgrade in the coming weeks, the addition of wireless charging will be a key bonus, especially if they like the wireless design dividend: a slickly colored glass back that’s less slippy in the hand than before.
But the 8 and 8 Plus have the same top-end processor as the X, and the well-loved and well-tested Touch ID fingerprint sensor, not to mention that the 8 Plus includes an improved dual camera. Add these factors and the two iPhoen 8 models suddenly become more attractive than ever.
In which case, you might ask, why aren’t they flying off the shelves already? Because, I think, that just-in-case feeling, that maybe the X will be easily obtainable after all, is just too tempting.
Ewan feels that lower sales will show that Apple has passed the peak moment of its influence. I’d say, and here I risk being labelled by him as part of the faithful geekerati, that the me-too iPhone X clones of coming months will show its influence is still considerable, and unmatched by any other company on earth.
Apple, like Nintendo, is a company you can’t write off and which you underestimate at your peril. Stock shortages of the AirPods in its early months especially, led to analysts saying they’d failed. Now, you can’t turn a street corner in Manhattan or Manchester without seeing the familiar white earbuds.
I’m quite prepared for Ewan to be proved 100% right, of course. But my guess is that the allure of the X will see it sell out pronto and the lower price, greater availability and snazzy design of the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus will lead Apple’s sales to soar again.
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