Technically-oriented reviews of games running on the Xbox One X are making it clear that the console lives up to the pre-launch hype. For the most part, games look and run better - sometimes a lot better - on the One X than on Playstation’s competing 4K console, the PS4 Pro.
The One X hardware appears to be all it’s been cracked up to be, but hardware without software is empty. This presents a problem for Microsoft. In order to show consumers what its hardware can do, it has to convince game developers to maximize their games for the One X.
Problems and opportunities are two sides of the same coin. Showcasing the One X poses a problem for Microsoft, but it also provides an opportunity for the company to build the Xbox brand by giving developers the support they need to show the console at its finest.
The problem
Optimizing a game to play on a particular console takes time, money and expertise. Time and money are things game developers usually have in short supply. Expertise can be an issue for new consoles as developers work to discover the tricks and shortcuts they can use to improve their games on unfamiliar hardware.
While everyone wants their game to look and play at its best, it can be difficult to devote the resources to achieving this goal when the monetary return on investment may not justify the cost. Many developers may find themselves facing this dilemma when thinking about enhancing their games for the One X.
For starters, the superiority of the One X’s hardware is best seen on a 4K TV, but most console owners have 1080p screens. In May of this year, the Consumer Technology Association estimated that 16% of US households owned a 4K TV with an additional 11% planning on purchasing one before the year ended. Ownership of 4K TV is growing rapidly but even if the predictions are accurate, roughly 73% of American households will be looking at 1080p screens at the end of 2017.
Moreover, game developers that decide to optimize their games for 4K may be more likely to focus on the PS4 Pro even though the One X is the more powerful machine. Microsoft does not release hard numbers on Xbox sales, but it’s generally estimated that the family of PS4 consoles has outsold the Xbox One family by about two-to-one, and the PS4 Pro accounts for approximately 20% of PS4 sales. Xbox One X sales have been higher than expected, but it’s unlikely the number of units sold will catch up to the Pro anytime soon .
Here’s Microsoft’s problem. How do you convince developers to devote precious resources to optimizing games for the One X when relatively few people have a TV that can display the games in all their optimized glory, and those who do have a 4K TV are more likely to own a PS4 Pro than a One X?
The opportunity
Digital Foundry has been publishing comparisons of 4K games running on the One X and the Pro, and, with the sole exception of Titanfall 2, every game they’ve analyzed looks and runs better on the One X. The One X has no current competition when it comes to putting the best-looking games on the screen and therein lies Microsoft's opportunity. As more games are optimized for the One X, it will become increasingly clear that the best gaming experiences for cross-platform games can be found on Microsoft’s flagship console.
How can Microsoft encourage developers to optimize their games for the One X when the numbers appear to recommend optimizing for the Pro or skipping 4K altogether? The answer is simple. Reach out to developers and give them the support they need to focus on the One X.
Developers generally lack two things that make optimizing for the One X a risky and possibly cost-ineffective proposition: Money and expertise with the One X hardware. Microsoft has both.
If Microsoft covers a developer’s additional costs for One X optimization, the main impediment to devoting the time needed to make a game shine on the console is instantly removed. What developer isn’t going to want their game to look and play as well as it possibly can on current generation consoles when their monetary cost for doing the extra work is zero dollars? It’s a no-brainer.
Developers may be willing to focus on the One X but coming to grips with a new hardware platform is still a struggle. Microsoft can help here as well by putting together a team of engineers that are available to show developers how they can get the most out of the One X hardware.
For example, developers may want to show their games in full 4K splendor but may be having trouble getting it to work. Microsoft’s Xbox engineers can show them how to do it, and may also be able to show them how to dynamically scale resolution while increasing other graphical improvements. Middle-Earth: Shadow of War and Rise of the Tomb Raider have become One X showpieces by following this path and offering players the choice of playing the game optimized for resolution or graphics quality.
Microsoft can take advantage of the opportunity inherent in the One X by covering developer’s costs and providing technical expertise and instruction where needed. The result will be a steady stream of Xbox One X enhanced games that perform at a level that no other console can match.
Could this approach end up helping Sony?
It could, but it’s not easy to see how. Sony could follow the same strategy and offer money and expertise to optimize for the PS4 Pro but the result would be a game that doesn’t look or play as well as it would on the One X. Would Sony contribute resources to developing games that could always be met with “Optimized for the PS4 Pro! . . . But it’s better on the One X”?
Another possibility is that Microsoft support for developers could whet the appetite for 4K gaming in general which would benefit Sony when it releases its next PS4 console. Sony is going to counter the One X with a high-powered console of their own, but what form that console will take and when it will be released are unknown.
Sony may be hard pressed to directly compete with the One X with their own current-generation, super-powered console. The One X is an engineering marvel. People who focus on console market share look at the One X and say, “It’s too expensive”. People who look at technology say, “Are you kidding? Getting this level of technology and performance at this price is a steal!” It’s difficult to see how Sony or anyone else can produce a more powerful console at the One X's $500 price point.
If Sony decides not to make a “me too” competitor for the One X and produces a more powerful next-generation machine, we’ve moved into new territory. Sony and Microsoft are almost certainly working on their next-generation consoles and how the competition between them plays out will depend on what those machines can do when they arrive. There are too many unknowns to justify speculations about how support for developers to make One X games now might affect sales of next generation consoles sometime in the future.
A window of opportunity
Microsoft likes windows and they have a real window of opportunity with the Xbox One X. As things stand now, the One X has no competition. A 4K game optimized to run on the One X is going to be the best-looking version of the game you can buy. Game reviews are likely to compare the One X and PS4 Pro versions and conclude the game looks and runs better on the One X. The perception that Xbox is the console of choice for the best gaming experiences will become more firmly established the longer this goes on.
If Microsoft takes advantage of this opportunity, it can be a win-win-win situation for everyone except Sony. Microsoft can build the Xbox brand as the home for the highest quality games. Game developers can show their games in the best possible light at little or no additional cost. Players can play the games.
Microsoft’s window of opportunity is open until Sony closes it with a countermove. Whether Microsoft takes advantage of their opportunity remains to be seen.
