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iPhone X Lead-times Drop To 2-3 Weeks

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Apple decreased the lead-times for the iPhone X from 3-4 weeks to 2-3 weeks on Wednesday. I have tracked iPhone lead-times for the 4S, 5, 5c, 5s, 6, 6s, 7 and now the 8 and X. While I didn’t follow all of them until the lead-times disappeared I believe it is worthwhile to follow the iPhone 8’s and X’s and compare them to some of the earlier models, especially the iPhone 6 since it saw such strong demand due to Apple being late to introduce a larger screen size smartphone. Note that it took 9 weeks for some of the iPhone 6 Plus’ lead-times to drop from 3-4 weeks to between 1 to 3 weeks.

Is it better supply or softer demand

While a number of articles have speculated that iPhone manufacturers have had challenges, which I believe have been off the mark, at the minimum it doesn’t look like supply is a problem. So it comes down to are the X’s lead-times shortening due to better supply or softer than expected demand. Having the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus available at the same time as the X along with the X’s high price throw a wrench into determining which of the two scenarios are more likely or having a bigger impact.

Regarding the supply scenario one of the points in its favor is the 57 countries that it was launched. I don’t believe Apple would have announced that many countries if management thought there would be problems it could not overcome. There were also multiple reports about a month ago that iPhone X production was ramping.

From the demand side there have been indications from various industry analysts such as Localytics measuring how many of each model are in use which have been positive for the iPhone X. But it would be helpful to have more of them to get a better indication of the demand for it.

Unfortunately we really won’t know until Apple announces its December quarter results regarding iPhone units and its average selling price or ASP. However having shorter lead-times for the X does help Apple have better availability for Christmas presents.

iPhone 8 lead-times have essentially disappeared

The lead-times for all the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus models on Apple’s US website are showing that they can be picked up in Apple stores the next day. This is the same for Apple’s Canada and China websites with the United Kingdom and Germany showing 2 days. Note that it took at least 13 weeks for the iPhone 6 to get down to these lead-times.