iPhone X Adoption Only A Bit Behind The iPhone 6s

Apple’s iPhone X’s lead-times dropped this week from 3 to 4 weeks to 2 to 3 weeks and Gene Munster at Loup Ventures updated his analysis of the X’s availability at U.S. Apple stores. While the on-line availability became better, Munster’s data is mixed. Additionally Localytics provided me with information on the first two weeks of usage for the X which shows it has a similar number being used as the iPhone 6s when adjusted for the iPhone install base.

Loup Ventures showed better and worse availability for the X

As can be seen in the graph below, Loup’s data shows that the iPhone X’s availability appears to increase to 26% on Friday in the 139 Apple stores it checks. However in its write-up it had been at 42% just a few hours earlier. But Munster tempered both of these data points by recommending the weekly average of 6% vs. 8% the previous week should be used. Next week’s data could be telling if availability gets better which should confirm the shorter lead-times.

iPhone X “usage” similar to the iPhone 6s but behind the iPhone 6

Localytics measures 70 million iOS devices globally to measure how many of each iPhone model is being used. In the first weekend the X was at 0.93% of the install base which translate to 7.3 million units. This essentially matched the combined iPhone 6s & 6s Plus’ 7.4 million but did trail the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus’ 9.9 million (the 6 was 8.6 of the 9.9 million).

At the two week mark Localytics calculates that 1.42% of the iPhone install base is made up of the X which is approximately 11.2 million iPhones. At the same point in time the 6s was 2.1% but due to a smaller install base it was 12.0 million units.

Also at the two week mark the iPhone 6 had sold 14.6 million units and the combined 6 and 6 Plus was 17.2 million. The X’s 11.2 million indicates its ramp is slower than the 6 and 6 Plus. The next few weeks will be crucial in providing insight into how well the iPhone X is selling.

Note: Below is a new chart that was not included in the original post due to it not being available.  It provides better information about the market penetration after two weeks for each of the iPhones shown.  Below this chart is the original chart used in the post.

Note: This is the chart in the original post.  The market share data in it for the iPhones shown show their market share as of November 2017.  Since the iPhones before the 8 and X have been available for at least a year it makes sense that most of their market shares are much higher than the 8 or X.