Apple's iPhone 8 And X Sales Remain Strong Post The Thanksgiving Weekend

Localytics provided me with an update on the market shares of iPhones in use as of Monday, December 11. By Localytics monitoring 70 million iOS devices globally and using an estimate of total iPhones in use it is possible to project how many have been sold. The bottom line is this data helps to confirm that iPhone 8 and X orders remain strong in the two weeks after the Thanksgiving weekend. If you want to get one in an Apple store it is best to shop in the morning as inventory can be spotty. (Note that I own Apple shares and have sold Put options).

Apple’s shares have rebounded today with one reason being its acquisition of Shazam. I believe that analysts will continue to publish positive outlooks for the December quarter, which should help the stock over the next few weeks and potentially into early next year. Events such as Best Buys 3 day sale of Apple products should also provide a boost.

Before Thanksgiving

Localytics estimates that two weeks after the iPhone X launched that its percentage of the iPhone install base was 1.42%. From a percentage perspective this is lower than the iPhone 6 at 3.4%, the 6s at 2.1% and the iPhone 7 at 2.7%. However since the iPhone install base has grown over the years the estimated number of X’s that had been sold did not lag nearly as much.

I am using an iPhone install base estimate of 787 million vs. the 1.25 billion that have been sold. These are Localytics estimate for the percentage of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of Friday, November 17, along with corresponding sales projections.

• iPhone 8: 1.74% translates to 13.7 million sold
• iPhone 8 Plus: 2.36% translates to 18.6 million sold
• iPhone X: 1.42% translates to 11.2 million sold

Note that the larger screen iPhone 8 Plus outsold the 8. This is the first time that the larger screen iPhone has done better than its smaller sized companion.

After Thanksgiving

These are Localytics estimates for the percentage of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of Wednesday, November 29, which is 12 days after the Before Thanksgiving weekend.

• iPhone 8: 2.22% translates to 17.5 million sold
  • An additional 3.8 million
• iPhone 8 Plus: 2.94% translates to 23.2 million sold
  • An additional 4.6 million
• iPhone X: 2.63% translates to 20.7 million sold
  • An additional 9.5 million

Over the 12 day period this indicates that there were an additional 17.9 million iPhones sold and in total the estimated number of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of yesterday was 61.3 million. Keep in mind that the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus went on sale in September and had 9 selling days in the September quarter so not all of their units that Localytics is seeing were sold in the December quarter.

Post Thanksgiving

These are Localytics estimates for the percentage of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of Monday, December 11. This is also 12 days from the After Thanksgiving reading.

• iPhone 8: 2.8% translates to 22.0 million sold
  • An additional 4.6 million
• iPhone 8 Plus: 3.48% translates to 27.4 million sold
  • An additional 4.3 million
• iPhone X: 4.03% translates to 31.7 million sold
  • An additional 11.0 million

When looking at the two 12 day data points the following results can be calculated.

• iPhone 8 sales went from 310,000 to 380,000 per day
• iPhone 8 Plus sales went from 380,000 to 350,000 per day
• iPhone X sales went from 790,000 to 920,000 per day

Apple has been able to increase the supply of iPhone X’s in its stores. I have surveyed 43 stores for the various models based on carriers, color and memory sizes for 688 data points. As of this morning there is 28% “coverage” which is down from 45% on Saturday morning.

What this means for the December quarter

Apple’s revenue guidance for the December quarter is $84 to $87 billion which should translate to about 80 million iPhones sold in the quarter. While the 81.2 million units sold as of yesterday has to be decreased due to the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus being available in September the company is still selling the iPhone SE, 6s, 6s Plus, 7 and 7 Plus so these will help the company hit its revenue guidance.

If you were to take the current daily sales rate of 1.65 million iPhone 8, 8 Plus and the X’s it would mean that there could be about 100 million of just these iPhones sold in the December quarter after adjusting for some iPhone 8 and 8 Plus sales in the September quarter. While I don’t believe this will occur since it would be so many more than Apple’s implicit guidance for the quarter I believe the data is a good indication that sales for these three iPhones remains strong.