David Their, my colleague here at Forbes, recently wrote an insightful article about why 2018 could be a rough year for the Xbox One X. His reasoning is cogent, and next year could very well play out as he predicts for Microsoft’s state-of-the-art console. However, I think an alternative outcome is also possible. The One X could have a great, and possibly game-changing year in 2018.
Who is going to buy the One X?
One of the important points David raises is that the PS4 has a much stronger lineup of console exclusives than the Xbox One. As things stand now, that’s a compelling reason to prefer the PS4, and it will become even more so based on Sony’s exceptionally strong lineup of exclusives scheduled for 2018. When it comes to console exclusives, it’s no contest. The PS4 wins walking away.
The PS4's awesome exclusives are one of the reasons why it has dominated the console space since the vanilla version was released in November 2013. The consoles in the PS4 family have sold 70 million units as of early December 2017. The Xbox One hasn’t done nearly as well, but that may work in the One X’s favor in 2018.
The PS4’s stable of console exclusives is impressive, but it’s only likely to be an important factor for customers who are deciding between buying an Xbox One and a PS4. Sony’s massive lead in console sales means there are a lot of people who already have a PS4 but don’t have an Xbox One. Many of these people aren’t deciding which console to buy, they’re deciding whether to buy a One X in addition to their PS4. They can already play the PS4 exclusives, their question is whether they want to play games from third-party developers on the graphically superior One X.
Some people who own a vanilla PS4 or a PS4 Slim may be deciding whether to buy the PS4 Pro or the One X. Most games that have been enhanced for both consoles look and play better on the One X. For people deciding between a Pro and a One X, the question is whether the improvements they’ll get with the Pro for the exclusive games playable on the PS4 they already own outweigh the superior experience available for many cross-platform games on the One X.
I don’t know how these questions will be answered by the people who buy new consoles in 2018. However, I think Sony’s brilliant lineup of console exclusives is unlikely to be a critical factor for many who are making these decisions.
The time factor: Word of mouth
I ordered a One X the day preorders opened in August. Based on the technology Microsoft packed into the One X and the impressive list of enhanced games announced for launch, I decided to pick up the Xbox One version of every cross-platform game I bought from that day forward. I have one regret about that decision; I wish I’d made it sooner. There are so many games I’m playing on the Pro that I wish I was playing on the One X. If you have a 4K TV and you’re sitting at the proper distance from the screen, the outstanding graphics on the One X are undeniable. No console has ever looked this good.
Initial sales for the One X were much higher than expected, and more people will buy the console as 2018 progresses. Many who have the console are going to be as blown away as I am by how good their games look. And they’re going to be telling others about it. Some may find themselves wishing, as I do, that they were playing some of their PS4 games on the One X. They're going to be telling others about that too.
As more people spread the word, more people will get the message, and the more attractive the idea of playing on a One X will become. There could be a snowball effect in 2018 as One X sales gain momentum through word of mouth. That snowball could turn into an avalanche because of the technology gap between the One X and anything the PS4 can offer.
The time factor: The technology gap
Perhaps the most important factor impacting sales of the One X is that Microsoft’s graphics powerhouse is expected to have no competition throughout much of 2018. The Pro is great, but it isn’t in the same league as the One X, and Sony has been silent thus far about when they plan to release an upgraded Playstation. The One X is the only game in town for players who want peak performance and superior graphics.
If Sony doesn’t release a competitive console until late 2018 or beyond, Microsoft will have had months to establish the One X as the technology king in the console space. If the One X becomes synonymous with graphics excellence in the minds of consumers, the momentum built up after months of no competition may be too much for Sony to overcome unless they can offer a much more powerful console at close to the same price.
A year-long technology gap between the One X and the Pro could shift market share in the console space toward Xbox. If Sony’s next console isn’t demonstrably better than the One X, that shift could continue after the next Playstation is released. If that happens, the One X will be a game changer in 2018.
Will 2018 be terrific or tough for the One X?
It seems to me the critical factor governing the fate of the One X in 2018 will be how Microsoft makes use of the time that passes before Sony responds with a competitive Playstation. A game-changing reorientation of the console space is possible, but I think it’s a long shot. Strong Xbox One sales throughout 2018 seem more likely. The longer it takes Sony to close Microsoft’s window of opportunity, the more successful the One X is likely to be.
I don’t know how the One X will fare in 2018. David offered compelling reasons why the console may have a tough time and I hope to have done the same for why the outlook may be bright. I expect the outcome will lie somewhere between these two views.
If you're interested in the Xbox One X, here are some other articles you might enjoy.
- The Year's Best Looking Games On The Xbox One X
- The Xbox One X Presents Microsoft With A Problem And An Opportunity
- 'The Witcher 3' Enhanced For The Xbox One X Is The Best Console Version, But . . .
- Comparing Star Wars Battlefront II On The Xbox One X, PS4 Pro And PC
- Comparing 'Assassin's Creed Origins' On The Xbox One X And The PS4 Pro
- The 4K Upgrade For 'Halo 5' On The Xbox One X Is A State-Of-The-Art Improvement
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