Why the iPad 3 Won't Replace Your Laptop

PCMag and tech press from all over the world will be in San Francisco Wednesday for what's already being hyped as from Apple. The company hosts an e.e.s.e. a couple of times a year—this one expected to be the launch of the iPad 3. I'll be there too, but not for the touchy-feely tablet; I'll be flying into the city for a briefing with another vendor the next day. And though it won't make one-fiftieth of the headlines, I daresay the mobile technology I'll see Thursday will prove as significant as what Apple shows off on Wednesday.

That's because, for all the the iPad 3 will have a quad-core processor or a retina display or a VW Beetle bud vase, we already know one thing about it: It won't be a laptop. And we know, if we're honest, that the iPad is no substitute for a laptop. Never will be. Isn't supposed to be.

Now, I've already weighed in on the about whether tablets count as PCs and whether Apple, thanks to iPad sales, should be counted as the number-one PC maker. In fact, I've been called "incredibly silly ... [and] narrow" by an Apple guy at The Next Web, who quoted PC World's John P. Mello Jr. (correctly) and "PC World's Eric Grevstad" (oops). He argued that people do actually use the iPad for content creation as well as consumption, because he and several guys he knows do word processing on it, though none get very far without an add-on keyboard such as Zagg's excellent ZaggFolio case. (I'm glad for them; typing on a tablet LCD's virtual keyboard is .)

I'll change my take on what the iPad is used for when Apple changes the copy on its website ("It makes surfing the Web, checking e-mail, watching movies, and reading books so natural, you'll wonder why you ever did it any other way"). Meanwhile, people who contend that the tablet is destined to replace the laptop tend to overlook a couple of things: Laptops have been around, and proven themselves in the portable productivity marketplace, for decades, and they've continuously evolved and gotten better.

I'm thinking of ultrabooks (I think of ultrabooks a lot since I'm going to buy one, assuming I can decide which of three or four candidates I like best): They're under three pounds, barely more than an iPad plus keyboard, but have sunny 13.3-inch screens, full-sized keyboards (unlike netbooks), and five- to seven-hour batteries. They're so cool I'm actually a little dismayed that Intel keeps saying its ultimate vision for the ultrabook is "a tablet when you want it, a PC when you need it"; that seems to imply there's a form factor more proven than the clamshell and an input method more proven than the keyboard, and I don't think there are. Folding and flipping screens and keyboards like the ZaggFolio's or CES' are clever, but I can't see them without having flashbacks to 1999's Vadem Clio and 2010's . And I believe Nuance's Dragon NaturallySpeaking dictation is virtually as good as a keyboard for solo speakers, but the thought of everyone in an office or on a plane using it is cacophonous.

Most of all, while they're not perfect—Dell is bundling its dazzling new with a 4G Wi-Fi hotspot when I'd rather they bundle it with Ethernet and VGA adapters—ultrabooks and other laptops deliver what I call the conventional computing experience. That may sound boring, but it really stands for no hang-ups, no glitches, no unpleasant surprises—for productivity and compatibility that you can't get with a tablet.

I'm not saying that because I dumbly follow the herd. Actually, given the choice I tend to pick the underdog: Diet Pepsi over Diet Coke. Schick over Gillette. Various experiments with Linux. LibreOffice. But my office runs on Microsoft Office; when I've got to deliver a report to my boss I need to put away Atlantis and FocusWriter and reach for Word with version tracking. And to do that, I need a laptop. So do millions of people a day.

That's why laptops are here to stay—why Apple, for instance, makes brilliant ones. (If Intel is ultrabooks' father, their mother is the MacBook Air.) And that's why, when I see the iPad 3, I'll say, "I know laptops. I work with laptops. And you, sir, are no laptop."

Assuming I make it through next week. It's bad luck to talk about earth-shattering events in San Francisco.