Verizon and AT&T are well on their way towards moving their subscribers from unlimited plans to tiered data plans. Crucially, it looks like T-Mobile and Sprint have not gotten a notable competitive advantage from offering cheaper and simpler voice/data/texting bundles. What this teaches Verizon and AT&T is that they clearly have leeway when it comes to pushing enterprises and consumers into more complex - and potentially more expensive - data plans. There was much grumbling when Verizon started the push for tiered plans and it grew louder when it turned out that Verizon would discontinue grandfathered unlimited plans for consumers who would switch to 4G devices... but there was no negative impact on Verizon and AT&T market share.
Based on conversations with carrier sources, it looks like Verizon and AT&T are now embarking on a quest to turn mobile billing just a bit more byzantine. Leading alternatives being considered right now:
- Pricing tiers based on download speeds. This would effectively block low-tier consumers or employees of a corporation from accessing streaming video or other data intensive applications. Could be a great fit for those people who simply use smartphones for email and light browsing of simple websites.
- Pricing tiers based on peak hours. This could be tricky to implement in a way that keeps consumers informed about when they risk downloading during expensive peak hours. It could also encourage rational resource allocation - of course, downloading large quantities of data should be done during off peak hours.
- Context-sensitive pricing. The idea of charging separate fees for video clip downloads and other premium content would be furiously opposed by content providers - and Apple. But it would be a highly effective way of informing consumers of true cost of certain types of download events.
Corporations are going to face some tough decisions over the next two years. Even though most employees in a typical enterprise tend to spend less than $40 per month on mobile services, a cluster of heavy spenders tends to hit bills in hundreds or thousands of dollars. That pool of big spenders is expanding in most companies as smartphones become widely available. How will managers decide who gets the privilege of gaining access to features like video streaming - and when is it necessary for business purposes? How closely will non-business data usage be tracked without alienating employees? How to track monthly spending patterns in order to determine when employees cross over from one usage category to another?
These are questions an increasing number of companies will be mulling over during the next two years. Would corporations and consumers really accept these new pricing plans? Well, they already accepted higher minimum text-message packages and unlimited plans with a rather pricey bottom tier. That may have been interpreted as an invitation to further elaboration.
