But there are reason to think that sometime in 2013, that could change.
Bernstein Research analyst Robin Bienenstock asserts in a research note this morning that it is "increasingly likely" that Apple and T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telekom will come to an agreement that will allow the carrier to sell iPhones in the U.S., most likely sometime next year. And for several very good reasons.
For starters, T-Mobile needs the iPhone. Over the past year, Bienenstock notes, the carrier has lost 8.9% of its contract customers and 5.4% of its service revenues, in a period in which the market has been growing. The analyst notes that without a deal, the company has promised to launch a "bring your own device" strategy in which they will offer high speed/low priced offerings for pre-existing iPhones. "Apple can't be pleased with this prospect," he adds.
The Bernstein analyst offers a list of reasons why Apple should want to sell iPhones through T-Mobile USA:
- It would pressure Verizon, Sprint and AT&T to sustain "higher and more frequent subsidies."
- It would increase U.S. iPhone sales by an estimated 2-4 million incremental phones per year, adding 50 cents to $1 in EPS.
- It could divert the company from pursuing its planned BYOD strategy.
Bienenstock thinks any deal is likely to come after the launch of the iPhone 5, and concurrent with T-Mobile expanding its 4G LTE coverage.
His view: a deal would be a win-win for Apple and T-Mobile, with Sprint the biggest lower. " A T-Mobile iPhone would pressure subsidies and service prices at a time when Sprint's 4G network is ill-prepared for a 4G iPhone, and the added competition could cost S precious volumes at a time when they are already running significantly short of their annualized volume commitments to AAPL." He adds that "VZ and T would be net losers as well."
Apple is up $4.22, or 0.7%, to $618.11.
