Apple's rumored iPad mini could very well be a shrunken-down iPad 2, according to analysis by Instapaper developer Marco Arment. He recently discovered references to two previously unknown iPad models in logs that track device usage among Instapaper users, which suggest Apple may soon release two new variations of the iPad 2. Arment theorizes that these models in fact represent two variations of the rumored iPad mini, reportedly launching in October, and re-engineered to be less expensive than the existing iPad 2 model selling for $399.
"It's a textbook Tim Cook supply-chain move: selling the last generation's hardware at a lower price point to expand marketshare," Arment wrote on his blog.
Developers often collect anonymous usage statistics for their apps, which help them understand, among other things, what hardware is popular with users. With this data, developers can decide when to add features that only work on newer hardware, for instance, or when it's a good time to drop support for older OSes or hardware.
Arment discovered references in his usage logs to two new iPad model identifiers on Thursday—iPad2,5 and iPad2,6. Apple typically uses the numeric X,X model designation to refer to major revisions and minor revisions, respectively. So, iPad2,1, iPad2,2, and iPad2,3 refer to the original WiFi, GSM, and CDMA versions of the iPad 2. iPad2,4 refers to a version of the WiFi-only iPad 2 with a 32nm version of the A5 processor which Apple still sells for $399.
The 32mm die shrink of the A5 processor gives the iPad2,4 a 20-30 percent increase in battery life over the original iPad 2 model, which came equipped with a 45nm process A5 processor. Coincidentally, the iPad mini's screen is rumored to be 7.85" diagonally, a 35 percent reduction in screen size. Presumably, the smaller screen would mean a 35 percent smaller case, which might only contain a 35 percent smaller battery. Effectively, though, the 32nm A5 should allow Apple to offer a smaller tablet with the same 10-hour battery as its larger 9.7" cousins.
The iPad mini's rumored 7.85" screen, which sources for Bloomberg said will be manufactured by LG and AU Optronics, is expected to stay at the same 1024x768 pixel resolution as the original iPad and iPad 2. The expected size and resolution makes sense to us for a couple reasons. For one, AU Optronics doesn't have an established reputation for manufacturing panels with the high-pixel densities required for a "retina"-class display. Also, maintaining the same resolution as earlier iPads means no changes are needed to existing software. Finally, some Apple watchers have argued that a 20 percent reduction in physical screen size shouldn't present usability concerns for standard iPad interface elements; that assertion seems plausible.
Two new model numbers suggest that Apple will offer a WiFi model as well as one equipped with some type of 3G or 4G cellular connection. It seems likely that Apple could be planning to use a second-generation combined GSM, CDMA, and LTE chipset from Qualcomm, which is also expected to debut in the next-generation iPhone. The combined volume between the iPhone and iPad mini should keep costs reasonable as well.
The suggested hardware mix is essentially identical to that proposed by Ars' own Andrew Cunningham in July; the model identifiers discovered by Arment corroborate Cunningham's idea that Apple would use iPad 2 technology.
As Arment suggests, the combination of older hardware should allow Apple to target a price of $249. That's not quite as low as the Nexus 7's category-busting price of $199, but Apple does have brand recognition on its side when it comes to the tablet market. Google has already admitted that the Nexus 7 makes essentially no profit, and other Android tablet makers can't be happy at the prospect of competing with effectively zero margin. A $249 iPad mini could potentially take some of the wind out of the Nexus 7's sails while still contributing a healthy margin to Apple's already impressive bottom line.
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