There's a weird thing going on with the Apple iPhone 5.
On the one hand, the very early indications are that consumers desperately want them. As the Wall Street Journal notes, pre-ordering this morning, on the first day of sale, appears to be so high that Apple's online store already is advising consumers that there will be a two-week wait for delivery, a week beyond next week's expected arrival in retail stores. Wall Street analysts likewise are falling all over themselves in joy, upping EPS estimates and price targets as they start factoring in iPhone 5 sales into their numbers.
"We believe that while the media bubble around the iPhone 5 has met the phone launch with mixed opinion, the reality is that when actual consumers have the product in hand, we believe they will be impressed," he writes, in a research note headlined "Believe The iPhone 5 Is A Rolex Among a Sea Of Timexes." He thinks the iPhone 5 has Rolex-like quality, "while the majority of other phones are dominated by lesser quality plastic and feel more like Timexes."
And he asks this question: "Why would someone by a Timex when they can have a Rolex for the same price?"
Munster also notes that "consumer sentiment around the iPhone 5 is significantly better than it was for iPhone 4S despite the lack of excitement by the tech media" He is sticking to his view that Apple will sell 6-10 million units before the end of the September, with 49 million iPhones overall in December.
Munster contends that when it comes to the new iPhone, you need to get your hands on one to fairly evaluate it.
Munster also notes that according to Investing Analytics, tweets about the iPhone for launch day were up 460% from the iPhone 4S launch a year ago. Blog posts on the phone were up 100% from a year ago. "Most importantly, we believe the sentiment around iPhone 5 was significantly better than that of the iPhone 4S," he writes. "Based on the same study by Investing Analytics, we believe that 73% of tweets about the iPhone 5 during launch day were positive compared to 51% for the iPhone 4S launch. We believe this is to be expected given the phone is redesigned while the iPhone 4S was not. More importantly the positive reception of the phone gives us greater confidence that Apple can not only meet our 6-10 million iPhone 5 unit estimate for the rest of September, but also hit our 49 million unit estimate for the December quarter, which assumes 32% year-over-year growth."
While there may be doubters in the media, the Street continues to be dominated by true believers.
Apple yesterday had a new record close at $682.98, for a market cap of $640 billion. And this morning? The stock is up another $5.81, or 0.9%, to $688.79.