Sales of the Apple iPhone 5 are up and rolling around the world, as the fan base queues up outside the company's retail stores around the globe. The big question: how many will they actually sell?
Topeka Capital analyst Brian White writes in a research note this morning that he now expects sales of 6 million to 6.5 million phones through the weekend, up from a previous forecast of 5 million to 5.5 million. Apple has already said that it received 2 million pre-orders for the phone in the first 24 hours. White has been projecting Apple will sell 10-12 million iPhone 5s by the end of September - but now contends that the forecast could be conservative. He thinks the key limiting factor will be supply, not demand.
While the lines were long in London and Palo Alto, the real boost could come from China, White adds.
"During the first phase of the iPhone 5 roll out, Apple added Hong Kong to the lineup and this is much earlier than the third phase for the iPhone 4S," he writes. "In our view, the demand for the iPhone 5 in Hong Kong will be unprecedented and this enthusiasm will quickly spill over into mainland China that we believe will launch in December. At the same time, Apple's new iOS 6 has enhanced features that directly benefit users in China, including Siri that now speaks Mandarin (and Cantonese), along with Baidu search built in, improved text input and more. Given these enhanced features, combined with the new look of the iPhone 5 that includes a new color combination, elegant anodized aluminum unibody casing, larger four-inch screen, thinner form factor (18% thinner) and lighter weight (20% lighter), we believe the iPhone 5 will drive an unprecedented upgrade cycle in China."
Apple shares this morning are down $4.66, or 0.7%, to $703.36.
