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The market for business process services in the cloud will double to nearly $145 billion by 2016, Gartner senior VP Peter Sondergaard in the opening keynote session Monday morning at the Gartner Symposium IT Expo in Orlando.
Gartner sees cloud technology as the foundation for the other key forces affecting enterprise IT at the moment: mobile, social and big data.
Some other key points from Sondergaard's wide-ranging talk on the state of the IT landscape:
- We're just at beginning of realizing the cost benefits of cloud.
- Cloud teaches us about services and services levels. Distinction between what business is doing with cloud and what IT embraces. IT just doesn't trust the public cloud; they want enterprise grade support. Fragnmentation has happened. Two versions are evolving in contention with each other. Highly competitive market for service. As clouds mature, margins will get tight. 20 of top 100 cloud providers to be displaced by 2014. By 2016, markets for business process services in the cloud will double to nearly $145 billion U.S. dollars.
- In 2016, over 1.6 billion smart mobile devices will be purchased globally.
- Two thirds of the work force will own a smart phone.
- 40% of workers will be mobile in less than two years.
- Apple iPads will be more common in businesses than BlackBerries within two years.
- Two years from now, 20% of sales organizations will use tablets as their primary platform for the mobile salesforce.
- In 2016, half of all non-PC devices in businesses will be purchased by employees; by end of the decade half of all devices will be purchased by employees. "You need to design for openness," he says.
- Coming: the a world where the physical world becomes digital. "The Internet of Everything is upon us." The cost of not monitoring physical devices will be higher than monitoring them. There will be 30 billion devices networked by end of the decade. There will an explosion of data and need for analytics.
- In 3 years, there will be at least 10 organizations spending $1 billion or more a year on social media.
- Paid reviews and ratings will be 15% of social media reviews by 2015.
- Technology spending as percentage of household income has increased.
- Judging by challenges at HP, Microsoft and Cisco: each is being challenged by at least one of the four forces. Clouds puts pressure on margin; mobile requires simple devices and focus on process model for software.
- Nokia, Motorola, Research In Motion struggling to move to cloud/mobile/social/big data "nexus."
- 90% of enterprises will bypass broad scale deployment of Windows 8 at least until 2014.
- IT market $4 trillion four years from now.
- Every budget is an IT budget; organizations will create role of chief digital officer, who will be responsible for digital business strategy.
- By 2015, 25% of organizations will have a chief digital officer.
- By 2015, 4.4 million IT jobs will be created to support big data. In the U.S., 6 million total jobs will be created in the information economy over the next four years. But there is not enough talent in the industry. Only one third of those jobs will be filled. Data experts will be a scare commodity.
