Gartner: A Dozen IT Predictions For 2013 And Beyond

Gartner this morning issued a list of a dozen predictions for the IT industry for 2013 and beyond. Some of the territory - and specific predictions - on this list were also included on two other lists Gartner issued this week at the company conference now taking place in Orlando.

In any case, here's the full list, which reflects the key themes at the conference: a focus on mobile, social, big data and cloud.

• By 2015, big data demand will reach 1 million jobs in the Global 1000, but only one-third of those jobs will be filled. Comment: Gartner has touched on this theme repeatedly this week. There is a shortage of data scientists.
• By 2014, European Union directives will drive legislation to protect jobs, reducing offshoring by 20% through 2016. Comment: Bad news for the Indian IT outsourcing companies, if that comes to pass.
• The predominant focus of most Global 2000 CEOs will be on revenue growth, at least until 2018. Comment:
  And until the end of time, I would think.
• By 2014, IT hiring in major Western markets will come predominantly from Asian-headquartered companies enjoying double-digit growth. Comment: Tat's an extension of the current trend, with many major Western IT companies struggling. Hello, HP.
• By 2017, 40% of enterprise contact information will have leaked into Facebook via employees’ increased use of mobile device collaboration applications. Comment: As Scott McNeally once said, there is no such thing as privacy. Get over it.
• Through 2014, employee-owned devices will be compromised by malware at more than double the rate of corporate-owned devices. Comment: Disturbing, but not surprising; expect to hear this stat cited a lot by IT departments resisting the BYOD trend.
• Through 2014, software spending resulting from the proliferation of smart operational technology will increase by 25%. Comment: This jargony trend is basically highlighting the expected explosion of the Internet of Things - or as Gartner likes to say at this conference, the Internet of Everything.
• By 2015, 40% of Global 1000 organizations will use gamification as the primary mechanism to transform business operations. Comment: Shall we play a game? The idea here is that in order to get people to do the things manage wants, it would help if they were fun to do. 40% seems kind of high to me, but who knows?
• Wearable smart electronics in shoes, "tattoos" and accessories emerges as a $10 billion industry by 2016. Comment: We have met the Internet, and it is us.
• 90% of enterprises will bypass broad-scale deployment of Windows 8. Comment: This is Gartner's attempt to irritate Steve Ballmer, I think. They think the fact that Win 8 shifts back to Win 7 mode for many apps make it an interim solution. Many companies might wait for what Gartner calls "Windows Next."
• By 2014, market consolidation displaces up to 20% of the top 100 IT services providers. comment: Investment bankers will remain employed.
• By 2014, 3 of the top 5 mobile handset vendors will be Chinese. That would imply Huawei, ZTE and I presume Lenovo; other candidates are Yulong and TCL. This sounds like trouble for, well, all of the other handset vendors.