Munster thinks the company will announce opening weekend sales on Monday; he cautions that the total released could also include sales of the fourth generation full-size iPad.
"We continue to believe that while launch lines and initial weekend sales may not be as impressive as previous iPad launches, the iPad Mini will be a hit product for Apple and become a more significant part of the story over the next 2-3 quarters," he writes.
Munster says Piper counted 580 customers in line this morning at the Apple store on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan, which compares to the 750 or so he counted in line at the same store for the launch of the 3rd generation iPad. As he points out, there may be other factors affecting this morning's line, in particular the ongoing fallout from Hurricane Sandy. (He notes for instance that two of the five Apple stores in New York are still closed.) He also notes that the line at the company's Minneapolis store is likely shorter due to freezing temperatures.
Apple is down $5.12, or 0.9%, to $591.42.
Update: Baird analyst William Power reports in a research note that stores in Dallas, Chicago and Milwaukee had lines ranging form 20-30 people at almost all stores visited, "a sharp contrast to other product launches which typically draw several hundred per store on launch day." He adds that lines in Asian stores were longer, in the 50-100 range.
Update: BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk writes that he thinks opening weekend sales need to top 3 million "in order to demonstrate that the management team can execute on ramping supply of new products and to provide some evidence that there is adequate demand for a smaller iPad at these price points." He thinks that is an appropriate target "given that the Mini is being launched in nearly 3x the number of markets than the iPad 3, is at a much lower price point and sold out of pre-ordered product deliverable this weekend."
Update: Topeka Capital analyst Brian White is projecting sales of 800,000 to 1 million Minis this weekend, but asserts that demand will "prove to be much greater," anticipating widespread shortages.
Update: In a second note, White indicates that at the Fifth Avenue store, some version of the Mini were out of stock within 30 minutes this morning. "Clearly, the iPad mini is off to a strong start and we believe this will be the next star in the Apple portfolio," he writes.
Update: In a third note, White says the Fifth Avenue store is now totally stocked out of Minis.
