Those who draw some self-esteem from being the first of their friends to get new Apple gadgets are going to have to find a new source of identity for a while.
Why?
Because unless Apple pulls a rabbit out of a hat next winter in the form of a dazzling (and affordable) iTV, it could be another 9 months before we see anything exciting out of the company.
Apple investors have already figured this out, which is one of the reasons the stock is sagging. And now that many Apple fans have rendered their iPads obsolete by wasting a few more hours in a (short) iPad Mini line, they're probably feeling the same sense of letdown.
Barring the aforementioned television—which, earlier this year, seemed a sure thing but has since dropped off the face of the earth—the next few quarters are likely to be remarkably quiet for Apple, especially relative to this past year.
This past year, you will recall, Apple had at least 3-4 fantastically exciting launches spaced perfectly throughout the year:
- iPad 3
- iPhone 5
- iPad Mini
Yes, there were also some new Macs in there. And the new Macs were sexy-looking. But let's be honest—it's hard to get super-jazzed about new Macs.
(I'm a happy owner of many Macs, including a MacBook Air, but I don't even know how to pretend to get excited about getting another slightly more powerful slightly larger slightly lighter Air next year). And, yes, there was some new software. But anyone who seriously gets excited about a new operating system is really pushing it.
This past year, we got all of those new things except the iTV. And they did their jobs—triggering hyperventilation in the tech press and the usual absurd Apple Store lines.
But now we're faced with a sort of post-Christmas morning sugar crash: All of the presents have arrived and been frantically unwrapped. And we're now surrounded by piles of paper and stuff we didn't really need and nothing left to look forward to. We just have to clean up and pay all the bills and start thinking about next year.
And what's likely to come next year?
Well, the truth is, barring the TV possibility, what's likely to come is just not that exciting. And it's certainly not soon.
For example, next year, we'll probably get:
- The iPad Mini 2 (retina screen), second half of the year
- The iPhone 6 (September—June or July at the earliest)
- The iPad 5 (September—we just got the iPad 4)
- More iPods (Yes, Apple still makes these. I think.)
- More Macs (Whenever. Whatever.)
The wait for all those things is likely to be at least 9 months. And if anyone can really, seriously gin up honest excitement about them, I salute you. I like my Apple products, but I also like my dishwasher. (Seriously. It's a cool dishwasher. Quiet. Nice design. Clean dishes.)
So that leaves the Apple iTV.
Are we finally going to get that?
Earlier this year, Apple analysts seemed absolutely certain the Apple iTV was on the way, perhaps as early as a month ago.
For the past quarter, though, we haven't heard boo.
And it's also not clear what this fantastic new machine is going to do.
Yes, it's going to look really, really cool.
It's going to be a "sheet of glass," Apple guru Gene Munster has told us.
It's going to look, it seems reasonable to assume, like a humongous version of that really cool-looking new Mac Apple just released.
And what is it going to do?
Well, it will almost certainly have an Apple TV embedded in it.
And you'll probably be able to screw a cable box onto it. Or, maybe, if Apple has made headway with the cable companies, it might even be a cable box.
And, yes, that will be cool.
But here's the key question:
Are you really going to pay twice as much for an Apple iTV as you would for one of the many other gorgeous flat screen TVs that are on the market—whose makers are continually beating the crap out of each other on price?
If you won't pay twice as much just because it's an Apple TV, Apple's profit margin is going to take a big hit. That won't be the worst thing in the world, but it will be a significant change in trend.
And here's another question about the iTV:
Can all the folks who line up every few months to buy the latest $100-$800 small Apple gadget really afford to shell out, say, $1,500 for a new TV that doesn't do much more than their old TV? Are they really that rich? Really?
But I digress.
The bigger point is this:
Unless Apple suddenly rolls out a sexy new TV or other product early next year, folks looking for reasons to get excited about the company are going to have to be patient for a while.
SEE ALSO: DEAR APPLE: I'm Leaving You
