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One Question Behind Apple's Volatility

This article is more than 10 years old.

Image via CrunchBase

Anyone following closely Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock cannot help but be puzzled by the high volatility, especially since early October that marks a year after the passing of its legendary leader Steve Jobs.

Investment gurus and market commentators, including some here at Forbes, have rushed to offer a number of explanations, from the cannibalization of a crowded tablet market, to increasing competition from Google’s android powered smartphones, tax related-sales, and a broken technical chart.

But there is a more fundamental question repeatedly resurfaces in Wall Street as the media continue to cover the life of the man who changed the world with his technology and marketing genius (CNBC 60 Minutes run a story last night):

Can Apple thrive without Steve Jobs?

As I argued in previous pieces, this could prove to be difficult. One the one hand, it is difficult for Apple to thrive without a leader with Jobs’ strong vision. He was a man could see the Big Picture and the details within it. A man who knew the technology, the market, and the art, and could marry all of them together in blockbuster products.

And he had the charisma to develop and spread the message to Apple followers, creating efficient and effective WOM and buzz campaigns.

On the other hand, as a non-conventional company, Apple can thrive without Steve Jobs. It is a form of collective entrepreneurship, an association of thousands of entrepreneurs that share the risks and the rewards from the discovery and exploitation of new products. And this business model makes it more likely that there will always be someone to lead the company in the right direction.

So far, the answer is yes — Apple can thrive without Steve. The company has introduced iPhone 4S and iPhone 5, another version of the iPad, a new MacBook and software upgrades. Sales and profits have been soaring; and Apple’s stock has gained 80 percent, beating its close competitor Google(NASDAQ:GOG) by a high margin.

The problem, however, is that all products launched this past year are versions of products developed under Steve Jobs. Customers and stockholders have yet to see a new family of products in the pipeline under the new leader Tim Cook.

A close look at other legendary technology companies may not be that encouraging for Apple bulls. Sony Corporation (NYSE:SNE), for instance, slid into a prolonged decline after the passing away of its founder Akio Morita, trading into upper single digits, down from triple digits back in 1999. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) shared a similar fate after its founders passed away. Even Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) hasn’t fared terribly well after Bill Gates stepped down from the company’s helm to pursue philanthropy.

Can Apple thrive without Steve Jobs? It remains an open question.

Also read:

7 Things that Make the Difference Between Marketing Dreams and Marketing Reality

Apple's Major Obstacle In Conquering China

Four Technology Companies that May Join the Special Dividend Rally

Disclosure: Long and short on AAPL