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China Is So Over The iPhone

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Apple bulls have been pinning their hopes on China, but Apple has been losing its ‘cool’ factor in China.  Only time will tell if Apple mania in China will go the way of other fads.

The Wall Street Journal reports that introduction of the iPhone 5 in Beijing was "arguably the least eventful launch of an Apple device in the company’s four-year history in the Chinese capital." In the past, introduction of new Apple products in China have been met with crowds coveting the new devices. In 2011, when iPhone 4S was launched, the Sanlitun store experienced a near riot.  This time when the Sanlitun store opened to launch iPhone 5 there were only two customers.

In another rare occurrence, a major Wall Street firm has cut estimates on Apple. UBS lowered Apple's 2013 earnings estimate to $47 per share from $51.50 citing falling iPhone build rate and cannibalization of iPad by the mini.  Consensus of analysts for 2013 earnings is $49.39.  UBS also lowered its price target to $700 from $780.

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Apple is no longer protected by its ecosystem from competitors poaching Apple users.  (See Trip To Asia Shows How Apple's Vaunted Ecosystem Doesn't Save It From Competition.)

In another recent setback to Apple in China, China’s biggest phone carrier, China Mobile, with more than 700 million customers, chose Nokia's Lumia 920T based on Microsoft Windows Phone operating system as its flagship smart phone for the time being. Cheap Google Android phones are the most popular smart phones in China.

Apple losing its cool factor in China has serious implications for investors. According to my method , long-term risks in Apple are rising.  For this reason our subscribers have realized profits on 80% of the position.  I advocate surrounding core long-term positions with short-term trades to enhance returns.  In our experience this approach can almost double the returns and reduce the risk.  The good news is that a short-term opportunity in Apple may be near.

About Me: I am an engineer and nuclear physicist by background. I founded two Inc. 500 companies, and have been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. I am the chief investment officer at The Arora Report, which publishes four newsletters to help investors profit from change. Write me: Nigam@TheAroraReport.com.  Follow me here.  Subscribers to The Arora Report are long Apple from $131 and have taken partial profits at $360, $525, $629, $568 and $610.