Fortune reporter Philip Elmer-Dewitt compiles sell-side and independent analysts forecasts on Apple. He has gathered 56 analyst projections that have an average of 22.8 million iPads sold from the Street analysts and 25.5 million from the independent analysts. The median for all of them is 24 million, which would be 55% growth from last year’s results but 67% when you adjust for 2011’s extra week.
Source: Fortune and Philip Elmer-Dewitt
While it is never easy to project the actual number of any product that is sold there are a number of items that add complexity to this quarter’s iPad’s estimate.
- The December 2011 quarter had 14 weeks vs. 2012’s 13 weeks
- The iPad 4 was launched in November, just eight months after the iPad 3.
- The iPad Mini was announced in October and available in mid-November
- It still has a one week lead time on Apple’s website which means it was supply constrained for all of the December quarter
- The iPad Mini became available in China in early December
- The iPad Mini had to cannibalize some iPad sales but the effect is difficult to quantify
I am at 23.75 millon iPads sold in the December quarter, which would be a 54% growth rate from the prior years 37 million and 69% growth from the September’s quarter result of 14 million. If you were to take out a 14th week of iPad sales the previous year the growth rate would be 66%.
Disclosure: My family and I own Apple shares
