Fortune reporter Philip Elmer-Dewitt compiles sell-side and independent analysts forecasts for Apple. He has gathered 65 projections, 38 of them sell-side analysts and 27 independents. The independent analysts are more bullish than the sell-side analysts and even the most pessimistic independent analyst’s EPS estimate of $13.06 would be just below the median of the sell-side analysts.
While it is never easy to project the actual number of any product there are a number of items that add complexity to this quarter’s iPhone and iPad estimates.
- The December 2011 quarter had 14 weeks vs. 2012’s with 13 weeks
- Apple launched the iPhone 5 in more international countries in the quarter vs. the 4S the year before
- The iPhone 5 was launched in September vs. the 4S in October
- The iPhone 5 was available in China in December vs. the 4S in the first quarter of 2012
- The iPad 4 was launched in November, just eight months after the iPad 3
- The iPad Mini was announced in October and available in mid-November
- It still has a one week lead time on Apple’s website which means it was supply constrained for all of the December quarter
- The iPad Mini had to cannibalize some iPad sales but the effect is difficult to quantify
Apple guided to revenue of $52 billion vs. the previous years actual result of $46.3 billion even with one less week in the December 2012 quarter. However, due to it guiding gross margins of 36% vs. the previous years 44.7% Apple’s guided EPS of $11.75 is lower than last year’s result of $13.87.
Since Apple has historically always been conservative with its guidance the question becomes how much will it beat it. Below is a table of the analyst’s estimates and you can click here to get to the detailed table of all the analysts.
Apple Guidance Sell-side Chuck Independents
Revenue $52 bil. $54.7 bil $57 bil $58.9 bil
EPS $11.75 $13.46 $14.30 $15.11
(millions of units)
iPhone * 47 50.5 53
iPad * 23 23.75 26
Macs * 5.3 5.25 5.2
iPods * 11.5 11.2 12.2
Gross Margin * 36.0% 38.5% 38.8% 39.3%
* Sell-side and Independent analysts are an estimated average
Disclosure: My family and I own Apple shares.
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