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Apple Estimates from 65 Analysts

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Fortune reporter Philip Elmer-Dewitt compiles sell-side and independent analysts forecasts for Apple.  He has gathered 65 projections, 38 of them sell-side analysts and 27 independents.  The independent analysts are more bullish than the sell-side analysts and even the most pessimistic independent analyst’s EPS estimate of $13.06 would be just below the median of the sell-side analysts.

While it is never easy to project the actual number of any product there are a number of items that add complexity to this quarter’s iPhone and iPad estimates.

  • The December 2011 quarter had 14 weeks vs. 2012’s with 13 weeks
  • Apple launched the iPhone 5 in more international countries in the quarter vs. the 4S the year before
  • The iPhone 5 was launched in September vs. the 4S in October
  • The iPhone 5 was available in China in December vs. the 4S in the first quarter of 2012
  • The iPad 4 was launched in November, just eight months after the iPad 3
  • The iPad Mini was announced in October and available in mid-November
  • It still has a one week lead time on Apple’s website which means it was supply constrained for all of the December quarter
  • The iPad Mini had to cannibalize some iPad sales but the effect is difficult to quantify

Apple guided to revenue of $52 billion vs. the previous years actual result of $46.3 billion even with one less week in the December 2012 quarter.  However, due to it guiding gross margins of 36% vs. the previous years 44.7% Apple’s guided EPS of $11.75 is lower than last year’s result of $13.87.

Since Apple has historically always been conservative with its guidance the question becomes how much will it beat it.  Below is a table of the analyst’s estimates and you can click here to get to the detailed table of all the analysts.

Apple              Guidance         Sell-side          Chuck             Independents

Revenue         $52 bil.           $54.7 bil         $57 bil               $58.9 bil

EPS                   $11.75              $13.46            $14.30               $15.11

(millions of units)

iPhone *                                     47                     50.5                    53

iPad *                                          23                    23.75                   26

Macs *                                       5.3                      5.25                   5.2

iPods *                                      11.5                     11.2                  12.2

Gross Margin *  36.0%         38.5%             38.8%             39.3%

* Sell-side and Independent analysts are an estimated average

Disclosure: My family and I own Apple shares.

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