Brightcove CEO Jeremy Allaire (Photo: Crunchbase)
Fourth in a series.
Everyone has something to say about Apple, especially about the prospects for what could be its next big thing: a television.
In a recent magazine story, I laid out the prospects for what some people are calling the iTV, as well as the considerable challenges Apple faces in bringing it to market. I couldn't include all the insights I got from smart people in tech and media, so in a series of posts, I'm sharing some of their thoughts to shed a little more light on what Apple can and can't do in television.
Jeremy Allaire, chairman and CEO of online video services provider Brightcove, figures Apple will likely come out with a television set at some point. "They're really good at building gorgeous monitors," he says, and TVs could be as much as a $20 billion-a-year opportunity.
Allaire just thinks they will be almost beside the point. "They don't really stand to gain anything with a monitor," Allaire, who will step out as CEO and become executive chairman in April, told me recently. "The end game for Apple in the TV business isn't to make a monitor."
What is Apple's end game? As it is with all of Apple's products, he says, it's the package of hardware, software, and services that creates something consumers will crave. And so it will be in television as well.
In particular, Allaire sees Apple's biggest opportunity to be in apps that can make that TV package something really different from today's uninspired crop of "smart" TVs. It's not that all of those hundreds of thousands of apps would necessarily run on the TV itself. But Apple also has the iPad and iPhone, which increasingly are serving as second screens enhancing the experience on the bigger screen.
In particular, Allaire thinks those iDevices can help Apple replace the famously and persistently clunky user interface for cable TV. Already, iPhones and iPads, as well as newer MacBooks, can use a feature called AirPlay to beam video to a TV screen that's hooked up to an Apple TV device. Allaire thinks AirPlay, which he says still suffers from some glitches, will be improved in coming Apple TV generations, along with more TV-centric apps, to the point that the lines between TVs and second screens will start to blur. "The living room just got on the app innovation curve," he says.
What's more, apps are Apple's path to subsume other home consumer electronics, from DVD players to gaming consoles, Allaire says. He thinks these apps could open up entirely new markets with TVs and second screens at their center--markets that go well beyond the rudimentary apps that mostly connect people to existing video content. Indeed, some knowledgeable folks, such as former Apple executive Jean-Louis Gassee, now a general partner with Allegis Capital, think the only real point of Apple making a television would be to make Apple's other products, from the Mac to the iPhone, more useful and thus more valuable.
All that's why the TV monitor that everyone likes to focus on will be much less important than the companion device--what is today called Apple TV. "They can disrupt the TV industry fairly significantly without selling the glass," says Gartner analyst Michael McGuire.
Sounds great, at least to people who want a more flexible TV experience. So what's the hangup? The TV industry, of course. Apple really needs the cooperation of the cable companies, even if it's minimal to start with. "They need the cable companies to open up their APIs [application programming interfaces]," he says. Unfortunately, he adds, "they're really struggling to sign them up. It could be another year."
Even another year could be optimistic, given the continuing health of the TV business, which doesn't especially need Apple to keep thriving for now. And so we all continue to wait.
Next: With Apple seemingly stymied for now in its attempt to foment a TV revolution, can TV device companies such as TiVo and Roku steal a march?
