I have been tracking Apple’s iPhone 6 and 6 Plus lead-times in a number of countries; on Verizon’s, AT&T’s, Sprint’s websites and three of Vodafone’s around the world since Apple and its partners started taking pre-orders on Friday, September 12. I also tracked lead-times for the iPhone 4S, 5, 5c and 5s and have all the details in a Google Doc. (Note that I own Apple shares).
I believe that by seeing how long lead-times are and change it can give one a feeling on how supply is matching up to demand. Different lead-times for the various models and memory sizes can give an indication of which ones are in higher demand and what the iPhone’s average selling price (ASP) could be.
Apple’s worldwide websites lead-times
After five weeks the iPhone 6 lead-times on Apple’s websites all seem to be at 7-10 business days except for Hong Kong’s which shows “Currently Unavailable”. Over the past week since I last surveyed a dozen Apple websites Taiwan’s model 6’s went from 2-3 weeks to 7-10 business days, Turkey had the Space Gray 64GB model shorten to 7-10 business days and the biggest change was Singapore’s going from “Currently Unavailable” (but I believe could be reserved for pick-up) to 7-10 business days.
Over the past two weeks the iPhone 6 Plus’s lead-times have settled in at 3-4 weeks. Over that timeframe Singapore’s has gone from “Currently Unavailable” to 3-4 weeks and the 16GB and 128GB models in China went from either 1-2 or 2-3 weeks to 3-4 weeks.
As points of comparison after five weeks Apple’s iPhone 5s’ availability were pretty much at 2-3 weeks lead-times and the model 5 was at 3-4 weeks. The iPhone 5’s lead-times moved to 2-3 weeks around November 12 or seven weeks after it was available. The iPhone 4S was at 1-2 week lead-times five weeks after it was available.
Verizon’s, AT&T’s and Sprint’s lead-times
The most noticeable information from Verizon’s iPhone 6 and 6 Plus lead-times is that the 64GB models tend to have the longest lead-times of all of them with two 128GB models showing same day shipment.
On AT&T’s website the iPhone 6 64GB models definitely have the longest lead-times and the lead-time for all the 6 Plus models show 28-35 days which has been the case since the first day of availability.
The lead-times for the iPhone 6 16GB and 128GB models all show 2-5 business days on Sprint’s website with the 64GB models at 2-4 weeks. It is a fairly similar situation for the 6 Plus with almost all the 16GB and 128GB lead-times at either 2-5 days or 1-2 weeks with the 64GB versions at 2-4 weeks.
Vodafone’s lead-times are still all over the map
The three Vodafone websites that I am tracking are the UK, Germany and Australia and have availability all over the map for Apple’s iPhone 6’s and 6 Plus’s. While the lead-times in the UK have gotten a bit longer, 7 of the 9 model 6’s showed in stock two weeks ago and now only two are, the UK’s are definitely better than Germany with all three of Germany’s 64GB models showing mid-December vs. 1-2 or 2-4 weeks in the UK. In Australia 4 of the 9 iPhone 6 models are showing “Out of Stock” with all three 64GB models in this category.
The situation for the 6 Plus is similar with the nine models in the UK showing lead-times ranging from 1-2 to 2-4 weeks, Germany’s a mixture with three models showing immediate availability but all three 64GB models not shipping until the middle of November and all nine 6 Plus models in Australia showing “Out of Stock”.
Demand for the 6 Plus and 64GB models should help the iPhone’s ASP
Since the 6 Plus’s configurations are $100 more than every other iPhone and the 64GB memory upgrade only costs $100 vs. $200 previously (which is helping many more buyers to upgrade vs. sticking with the 16GB model) it led to the iPhones average selling price (ASP) coming in at $603 in the September quarter. This was above the Street’s $580 estimate and a bit below my $610.
As Apple and its suppliers continue to ramp production the December quarter’s iPhone ASP should increase again. Over the past three product cycle’s the December quarter’s iPhone ASP has increased quarter over quarter by 4%, 4% and 10%, respectively.
