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Does Windows 10 Spell The End Of The PC Era Finally ?

This article is more than 8 years old.

Jay McGregor rounds up the reviews for Windows 10 succinctly on Forbes, but there's a definite whiff of necrosis in the air for the Microsoft OS. Perhaps the most telling review is from Walt Mossberg on Re/Code;

“However, it’s just okay, not disruptive. It’s perhaps what Windows 8 might have looked like if it had been evolutionary, not revolutionary. I doubt it will convert many Mac owners, spur a shopping spree in new PCs, bring in droves of new developers, or save the Windows Phone.”

Having been given a Lumia 930 on loan from Microsoft to test drive the phone and its enterprise features I can almost agree with the statement, but the point I want to make is this:

Windows 10 may well be the final death knell for the Personal Computing era.

This has been said many times before. And not even Windows 10 being free will help the issue for the humble PC as we know it.

Gartner this year in April reported that worldwide PC shipments totaled 71.7 million units in the first quarter of 2015, a 5.2 percent decline from the first quarter of 2014. "Desk-based PC shipments declined rapidly, with business desk-based PCs being impacted the most. Mobile PCs are being driven by a separate underlying replacement cycle, which led mobile growth in the first quarter. PC replacements will be driven by thin and light notebooks with tablet functionality. Our early study suggests strong growth of hybrid notebooks, especially in mature markets, in 1Q15."

But what defines a PC today ? The lines have become extremely blurred, even in the statement above, where what we originally perceived as a PC (a hefty desktop or laptop device) is being replaced by more mobile alternatives with leaner OS and app based ecosystems. These aren't PCs as we used to know.

There are 3.6bn unique mobile users out there in the world in 2015 for example, but we don't classify what they use as a PC. In fact look at the Wikipedia entry for Personal Computer and you don't find mobile smartphones listed, and yet we use them more than we do a laptop or desktop.

Chris Suh, GM of Investor Relations at Microsoft said only last year after posting results that consumer PC sales were tanking, but sales to enterprises were strong. Suh said Windows revenue for consumers was down 20%. Windows revenue for enterprises was up 12%. Again, a strong indicator that in the consumer world the mobile device is King, whereas the traditional PC business relies heavily on hardware renewal and replacement programmes from organizations. But ultimately this will fall and give way as tablet, mobile and other smart devices gain more traction.

Apple and IBM are spending vast amounts in a partnership to bring iOS into the organization; by iPad and iPhone, not the traditional PC route for example.

If Windows 10 is an Operating Ecosystem (rather than an Operating System) that spans multiple computing, communication and gaming devices, the chances are that it'll be more widespreadly used on smaller and more mobile form factors than in any older format, especially in the consumer world.

“Windows 10 marks the first steps in a transition from operating system to ecosystem, a wild dream that gets a little less crazy everytime I ask my PC a question, or pop the keyboard of my laptop to get some reading done.” - Nate Ralph, CNET

In a business context, Windows 10 won't scratch the surface of sales and installations. Period. By the time businesses reach the stage of contemplating looking at upgrading to Win10 the mobile ecosystem, and potentially the Apple/ IBM charge into the enterprise, will have taken hold completely.

The PC as we know it is dead. But it may be time to redefine the entire market than rely on a definition we've held dear since Olivetti launched the Programma 101 at the 1964 World's Fair.

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