Now that Apple (AAPL) has gone ex-growth, investors are wondering if the stock’s new theme song is Bruce Springsteen’s “Glory Days.”
Is it time, as the Boss sings, to “sit around talking about the old times” and “boring stories of glory days”?
With the smartphone market maturing and Apple still looking for its next big thing, the heady days of double-digit sales and earnings growth could be over, some observers say.
Even billionaire investor Carl Icahn doesn’t see much upside for Apple. Icahn announced Thursday that he has sold all of his Apple stock. He used to own 53 million shares, or nearly 1% of the company.
Apple’s disappointing March-quarter earnings report and June-quarter guidance provided more fuel for Apple bears who say the company is past its prime.
Apple stock fell 1.2% to 93.74 on Friday. Its shares have fallen in 10 of the past 11 trading sessions, tumbling 16.4% during that period.
Apple stock has been a loser since it joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average on March 18, 2015. Since being added to the Dow, Apple stock has fallen 26.2%. Stock market observers note that stocks that join the blue-chip index are often past their prime.
Apple late Tuesday reported that its sales fell for the first time since 2003 and iPhone unit sales fell for the first time ever on a year-over-year basis. Apple’s earnings per share declined 18% to $1.90 and its sales shrank 13% to $50.56 billion, both missing Wall Street’s targets. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters predict that Apple’s sales will fall 15% in the June quarter, 9% in the September quarter and 3% in the December quarter.
Will iPhone 8, In Late 2017, Be Next Catalyst For Apple?
Oppenheimer analyst Andrew Uerkwitz on Wednesday lowered his rating on Apple stock to perform from outperform.
Weakness in Apple’s business is likely to persist until late 2017 when the company launches the rumored iPhone 8, he said. Uerkwitz adopted a “more bearish outlook” for the upcoming iPhone 7, due out in September. He doubts the iPhone 7 will have enough innovative features to drive upgrade sales.
“We see the stock trading sideways while investors grapple with perceived slowing innovation and unit growth on the one hand, and massive cash generating, dividend paying, attractive valuation on the other,” he said in a report.
Apple’s iPhone shipments are likely to decline 10% in fiscal 2016, which ends Sept. 24, and increase by just 2% in fiscal 2017, Uerkwitz said.
Uerkwitz said he is questioning his faith in Apple.
“We like Apple as a company, but less so as an investment,” Uerkwitz said. “We believe investors will question if the ‘best times have passed’ or if ‘Apple can innovate no more’,” he said.
To appeal to more value-oriented investors, Apple on Tuesday raised its cash return program. It increased its dividend by 10% to 57 cents a share and hiked its stock buyback plan to $175 billion from the $140 billion level announced last year.
Apple CEO Cook Has Not Delivered 'Transformative Products'
FBN Securities analyst Shebly Seyrafi on Wednesday cut his price target on Apple stock to 110 from 120, but maintained his outperform rating.
“We are concerned that, over four years since assuming the CEO position in late 2011, CEO Tim Cook has not delivered any real transformative products,” Seyrafi said.
Apple’s only new product introduced since the 2011 death of the company’s revered co-founder and CEO Steve Jobs was the Apple Watch, which has failed to live up to expectations.
“Investors simply need to wait until 2017 when the company’s comparables get much easier,” Seyrafi said.
IPhone sales growth might not return until March-quarter 2017, Rosenblatt Securities analyst Jun Zhang said in a report Wednesday. He rates Apple stock as neutral, with a price target of 102.
Zhang is especially concerned about Apple’s declining sales in China, which had been a growth driver for the company. The high-end smartphone market where Apple plays appears saturated in China, he said.
Enthusiasm for the Apple brand might be waning in China as well, he said.
“In the past, iPhones were an icon of social status in China, but starting last year, we actually found many business persons carrying Huawei or Xiaomi phones,” Zhang said in a report.
On Thursday, research firm Strategy Analytics reported that Apple fell to No. 5 in China smartphone shipments with an 11% market share in Q1. A year earlier, it was No. 2, with 12.3% share.
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