Apple (AAPL) iPhone 7 demand could falter, but 3D Touch supplier Analog Devices (ADI) expects a strong fiscal Q4 on boosted dollar-content in Apple's newest flagship smartphone, likely to be released in September.
But that ramp won't be apparent in Q3. Wednesday, Analog Devices reported sales fell 5% year over year for its fiscal Q2 ended April 30, and guided to another 5% dip in Q3. Over the past two years, Analog Devices has grown an average 13.5% during its July quarter.
This year, Analog Devices' second-generation 3D Touch will ramp in timing with chips from other Apple suppliers, Analog Devices CFO Dave Zinsner told analysts during the company's Q2 earnings conference call.
"And really that means that we really don't see the demand pick up until the July time frame," he said. "So, it's probably going to be more of the end of Q3 and more into Q4 this time vs. last year where it was more of a ramp in Q3."
Analog Devices’ Q3 will be back-end loaded on Apple’s iPhone 7, Edward Jones analyst Bill Kreher told IBD. More encouraging, the company is seeing stable demand within its automotive and industrial segments, he says.
“The outlook suggests the company is weathering the near-term softness in Apple,” he said. “And, as it relates to Apple, the company indicated this would be a trough in terms of orders. They expect to see sequential growth, and from that perspective it is encouraging because there will be a ramping in orders.”
MKM analyst Ian Ing reiterated a neutral rating and 56 price target on Analog Devices stock. In morning trading on the stock market today, Analog Devices stock was down more than 1%, near 55, after rising nearly 1% on Wednesday.
Despite Zinsner's expectations for boosted dollar-content in the iPhone 7, Ing sees average sales prices for the second-generation 3D to fall 10% from $1.75. Consumer sales account for 10% of Analog Devices' revenue and fell 27% vs. the year-earlier quarter in Q2.
But Ing doesn't expect much of a Q3 boost for Analog Devices' bread-and-butter business-to-business segments, which account for the other 90% of sales. Those segments grew 9% sequentially in Q2 to $698.7 million, but fell 2% vs. the year-earlier quarter.
Analog Devices guided to mid-to-high single-digit year-over-year growth for those segments in Q3. For Q4, the company expects greater operating leverage, a full quarter of portables shipments, higher factory utilizations and better automotive seasonality, Ing wrote.
But lower factory utilizations in Q3 suggests "little visibility or confidence in the overall demand environment," Ing wrote. Analog Devices guided down to 60%-range utilizations for Q3 vs. 70% in the year-earlier quarter. The goal is to cut down on inventory, the company says.
"The macro environment for Analog Devices business-to-business segments remains mixed at best," Ing wrote.
