It might not be rivalling
At launch, the Pixel and Pixel XL handsets were expected to sell between three and four million handsets. The initial numbers and surveys suggested that Google was on course to do just that.
The latest data from Morgan Stanley backs up those numbers. It estimates that Google will reach the target of three million handset sales before the end of the year. With four weeks to go, including the busy festive period and consumers looking for alternatives to the missing Galaxy Note 7 and the stock-limited iPhone 7 Plus, the Pixel is building up a critical and commercial head of steam at the right time.
Those are solid numbers and Google will be able to compare them favourably with those of the Nexus device which were targeted at developers and had a lower retail price. One area to highlight might be the estimates on the Pixel's gross profit margin, estimated to be in the region of twenty-two to twenty-five percent. That's lower than the estimated forty-one percent margin on the average iPhone 7. The flip-side is that Google's advertising-based ecosystem will allow Mountain View to continue to extract ongoing revenue from Pixel customers, just as it does with every Android user who has a Google Play enabled handset (which if we're honest is pretty much all of them).
Google might not be reaching the same sales level and market share as Apple or Samsung, but the first generation of Pixel devices has captured something more important. It has captured respect, critical acclaim, and a level of commercial success that, while not at the top of the smartphone world, would be welcomed by many Android manufacturers. Google is playing a long game, but the first steps are confident and in the right direction.