Apple's Breakout Seen Boosting Stock 10% Higher

(Note: The author of this fundamental analysis is a financial writer and portfolio manager. He and his clients own shares of AAPL.)

Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) stock has jumped more than 38% this year, and it may rise by another 10%, according to technical analysis.

Options traders' bets support that forecast and see the stock rising by the middle of November, which is after the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results. The positive sentiment may be the result of analysts boosting their earnings and revenue estimates for the company following the release of Apple’s newest iPhone line at the start of September. (See: Apple's Stock May Rise 14% Amid New iPhone Release.)

AAPL data by YCharts

Breaking Out

Apple’s stock broke out of a bullish technical pattern - known as a wedge - at the end of September. The stock has also risen recently above another level of technical resistance at around $230. Given the breakout, the stock is in a strong position to rise about 10% to $255. That's where the stock will hit its next level of technical resistance.

Another bullish sign is the relative strength index (RSI), which has been rising since February. It suggests that positive momentum continues to fuel the stock.  

Bullish Options

Options trades also suggest the stock will rise by expiration on November 16. The calls at the $235 strike price, which are bets that the shares will increase, have almost 15,000 open contracts. That's nearly seven times greater than the volume of bearish options trades. The options activity suggests the stock will climb by about 4% to $243 following the company’s quarterly results. (See: Apple Options Traders Bet Shares Will Rise 15%.)

Increasing Estimates

The fundamentals also are improving. Since the start of September, analysts have increased their fiscal 2019 earnings and revenue estimates. 

AAPL Annual EPS Estimates data by YCharts

Fairly Valued

Apple’s stock trades at a PE ratio for fiscal 2019 of 17. When adjusting the PE for growth, it gives the stock a PEG ratio of around 1, which makes Apple shares fairly valued. For Apple’s stock to continue to rise, the company may need to deliver better than expected growth when it reports results in a few weeks.

Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser, and the manager of the company's actively managed, long-only Thematic Growth Portfolio. Kramer typically buys and holds stocks for a duration of three to five years. Click here for Kramer's bio and his portfolio's holdings. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.