Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X Supercycle Won't Really Happen Until 2018

For months, many Wall Street analysts have predicted the iPhone X will drive a significant number of existing iPhone users to upgrade. The latest word from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, suggests the so-called "supercycle" won't truly gain momentum until 2018 due to multiple factors.

iphone x dual lens camera
Namely, Kuo said the TrueDepth camera system's reported production issues will be "significantly addressed" in 2018. He also believes new iPhone models launched in 2018 will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017, with next year's lineup likely to retain many of the iPhone X's appealing features.

Here's the excerpt from Kuo's research note obtained by MacRumors today:

The market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, but we think the real super cycle will be in 2018 for the following reasons: (1) TrueDepth Camera's production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018F; (2) new models launched in 2018F will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017; and (3) the product mix, specifications and designs of new iPhone models from 2018F will be more competitive. We estimate that for 2017, iPhone shipments will come in at 210-220mn units, which should grow to be 245-255mn units in 2018.

Kuo estimated that once iPhone X's production issues are solved in the fourth quarter of this year, shipments will "pick up strongly" in the first half of 2018.

Related Forum: iPhone

Top Rated Comments

dominiongamma Avatar
86 months ago
Guess I’m skipping the 10 waiting for the 11. Since in a couples months later in 2018 a newer iPhone will be out.
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
EvilEvil Avatar
86 months ago
I'm glad I upgraded to the iPhone 8+. I will not be buying another iPhone until they remove the notch.
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
NinjaHERO Avatar
86 months ago
Good plan. Wait for 2018 everyone, so mine ships right away. lol
Score: 18 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Blackstick Avatar
86 months ago
I'm glad I upgraded to the iPhone 8+. I will not be buying another iPhone until they remove the notch.
You might be waiting, awhile. I'm with Marco on this one, that controversial yet tech-packed notch is going to make the iPhone look iconic and unmistakably an iPhone from 30 feet away, instead of an anonymous Android.

https://marco.org/2017/09/18/courage
Score: 17 Votes (Like | Disagree)
testcard Avatar
86 months ago
Has anyone even seen a photograph of Kuo - does he actually exist?
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)
nburwell Avatar
86 months ago
I'm still glad I went with the 8+. I'm okay waiting until next year when the second generation X is released.
Score: 15 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

maxresdefault

Apple Announces 'Let Loose' Event on May 7 Amid Rumors of New iPads

Tuesday April 23, 2024 7:11 am PDT by
Apple has announced it will be holding a special event on Tuesday, May 7 at 7 a.m. Pacific Time (10 a.m. Eastern Time), with a live stream to be available on Apple.com and on YouTube as usual. The event invitation has a tagline of "Let Loose" and shows an artistic render of an Apple Pencil, suggesting that iPads will be a focus of the event. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more ...
Apple Vision Pro Dual Loop Band Orange Feature 2

Apple Cuts Vision Pro Shipments as Demand Falls 'Sharply Beyond Expectations'

Tuesday April 23, 2024 9:44 am PDT by
Apple has dropped the number of Vision Pro units that it plans to ship in 2024, going from an expected 700 to 800k units to just 400k to 450k units, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Orders have been scaled back before the Vision Pro has launched in markets outside of the United States, which Kuo says is a sign that demand in the U.S. has "fallen sharply beyond expectations." As a...
iOS 17 All New Features Thumb

iOS 17.5 Will Add These New Features to Your iPhone

Sunday April 21, 2024 3:00 am PDT by
The upcoming iOS 17.5 update for the iPhone includes only a few new user-facing features, but hidden code changes reveal some additional possibilities. Below, we have recapped everything new in the iOS 17.5 and iPadOS 17.5 beta so far. Web Distribution Starting with the second beta of iOS 17.5, eligible developers are able to distribute their iOS apps to iPhone users located in the EU...
iPad And Calculator App Feature

Apple Finally Plans to Release a Calculator App for iPad Later This Year

Tuesday April 23, 2024 9:08 am PDT by
Apple is finally planning a Calculator app for the iPad, over 14 years after launching the device, according to a source familiar with the matter. iPadOS 18 will include a built-in Calculator app for all iPad models that are compatible with the software update, which is expected to be unveiled during the opening keynote of Apple's annual developers conference WWDC on June 10. AppleInsider...
iPhone 15 Pro FineWoven

Apple Reportedly Stops Production of FineWoven Accessories

Sunday April 21, 2024 6:03 am PDT by
Apple has stopped production of FineWoven accessories, according to the Apple leaker and prototype collector known as "Kosutami." In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Kosutami explained that Apple has stopped production of FineWoven accessories due to its poor durability. The company may move to another non-leather material for its premium accessories in the future. Kosutami has revealed...