Slice Intelligence has a panel of 5 million online shoppers that Slice is able to see the item level detail on what the shoppers buy. Slice published its initial findings for the iPhone 8 and X measured against the iPhone 6, 6s and 7 families to compare how Apple’s latest iPhone pre-orders did. If Slice’s data is correct, Apple’s December quarter should be very good. (Note that I own Apple shares and have sold Put options).
Slice sets the iPhone 6 pre-orders at 1x to provide relative sales for the other iPhones which are:
- iPhone 6 1.00x
- iPhone 6 Plus .56x
- iPhone 6 and 6 Plus 1.56x
- iPhone 8 .17x
- iPhone 8 Plus .25x
- iPhone X 1.25x
- iPhone 8, 8 Plus and X 1.67x
While the iPhone X’s pre-orders are higher than the iPhone 6 when you combine the 6 and 6 Plus of 1.56x they are slightly less than the iPhone 8, 8 Plus and X’s total of 1.67x. Or looked at another way the latest iPhone’s pre-orders are a combined 7% higher than the 6’s.
iPhone pre-orders
Slice IntelligenceIt isn’t an exact science from this to calculate how many iPhones Apple could sell in the December quarter since there are at least the following variables:
- The iPhone X was launched over a month later than the other iPhones
- The current install base is higher
- There are more first day countries launched for the iPhone 8 and X
- The 8 and especially the X have higher prices
But to provide some projections here is information to consider.
- iPhone December 2014 unit sales (quarter after the 6 was launched) increased 90% from the September quarter
- Or 95% when adjusted for inventory changes
- iPhone September 2017 unit sales were 46.677 million
- Applying a 90% quarter to quarter increase would forecast 88.5 million iPhones sold in the December 2017 quarter
- Along with an Average Selling Price of $750 Apple could generate
- Over $90 billion in revenue for the quarter
Along with indications that iPhone production is ramping, my belief that the iPhone 8 is doing better than what other articles have indicated and Tim Cook’s bullish statements it appears that the new iPhones are doing very well.
