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Apple's iPhone 8 And X Continue To Do Well

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Localytics provided me with an update to the percentage of the iPhone install base that are comprised of iPhone 8’s and X’s as of Wednesday, November 29. By Localytics monitoring 70 million iOS devices globally and using an estimate of total iPhones in use, it is possible to estimate how many have been sold. The bottom line is that this data helps to confirm the initial iPhone 8 and X orders, which were very good.

Apple’s shares have rebounded today along with the rest of the market. I believe that analysts will continue to publish positive outlooks for the December quarter, which should help the stock over the next few weeks and potentially into early next year.

Before Thanksgiving

Localytics estimates that two weeks after the iPhone X had launched, its percentage of the iPhone install base was 1.42%. From a percentage perspective, this is lower than the iPhone 6 at 3.4%, the 6s at 2.1% and the iPhone 7 at 2.7%. However since the iPhone install base has grown over the years the estimated number of X’s that had been sold did not lag nearly as much.

Here are Localytics estimate for the percentage of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of Friday, November 17.

  • iPhone 8: 1.74% translates to 13.7 million sold
  • iPhone 8 Plus: 2.36% translates to 18.6 million sold
  • iPhone X: 1.42% translates to 11.2 million sold

iPhone usage two weeks after the X's launch

Localytics

Note that the larger screen iPhone 8 Plus outsold the 8. This is the first time that the larger screen iPhone has done better than its smaller sized companion.

After Thanksgiving

These are Localytics estimates for the percentage of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of Wednesday, November 29.

  • iPhone 8: 2.22% translates to 17.5 million sold

    • An additional 3.8 million
  • iPhone 8 Plus: 2.94% translates to 23.2 million sold
    • An additional 4.6 million
  • iPhone X: 2.63% translates to 20.7 million sold
    • An additional 9.5 million

iPhone usage after Thanksgiving

Localytics

Over the 12-day period this indicates that there were an additional 17.9 million iPhones sold and in total the estimated number of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of yesterday was 61.3 million.

Keep in mind that the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus went on sale in September and had nine selling days in the September quarter so not all of their units that Localytics is seeing were sold in the December quarter.

There are also reports that Rosenblatt Securities Apple analyst Jun Zhang estimates that Apple sold 6 million iPhone X’s over the Thanksgiving weekend and that it has sold 15 million in total. While his and Localytics/my estimates don’t match up exactly they are fairly close to each other.

What this means for the December quarter

Apple’s revenue guidance for the December quarter is $84 to $87 billion which should translate to about 80 million iPhones sold in the quarter.

While the 61.3 million units sold as of yesterday has to be decreased due to the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus being available in September the company is still selling the iPhone SE, 6s, 6s Plus, 7 and 7 Plus so these will help the company hit its revenue guidance. Also Apple announced that 57 countries would have the iPhone 8, 8 Plus and X available on the first day of sales vs. the 28 for the iPhone 7.

iPhone ASP also should be very strong

Note that in both timeframes the iPhone 8 Plus seems to be outselling the iPhone 8. When you add the iPhone X’s price being even higher the outlook for the ASP or Average Selling Price for all iPhones looks very good. The groundwork could be laid for an outstanding quarter.