Apple Still Selling Over 1 Million iPhone 8's And X's Per Day

Localytics provided me with an update on the market shares of iPhones in use as of Monday, December 18. By Localytics monitoring 70 million iOS devices globally and using an estimate of total iPhones in use, it is possible to project how many have been sold and their daily sales rate. In the long run, the number of iPhones in use should be very close to that number that have been sold. The bottom line is this data helps to confirm that iPhone 8 and X sales remain strong (a combined one million plus per day) even though the daily number has slowed. While inventory of the iPhone X has improved, if you want to get one in an Apple store, it is best to shop in the morning. (Note that I own Apple shares and have sold Put options).

Apple’s stock had been slightly underperforming the markets over the past few weeks but as of this morning made an all-time high as has the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, which crossed 7,000 for the first time.

Before Thanksgiving

Localytics estimates that two weeks after the iPhone X launched that its percentage of the iPhone install base was 1.42%. From a percentage perspective this is lower than the iPhone 6 at 3.4%, the 6s at 2.1% and the iPhone 7 at 2.7%. However since the iPhone install base has grown over the years the estimated number of X’s that had been sold did not lag nearly as much.

I am using an iPhone install base estimate of 787 million vs. the 1.25 billion that have been sold. These are Localytics estimate for the percentage of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of Friday, November 17, along with corresponding sales projections.

• iPhone 8: 1.74% translates to 13.7 million sold
• iPhone 8 Plus: 2.36% translates to 18.6 million sold
• iPhone X: 1.42% translates to 11.2 million sold

Note that the larger screen iPhone 8 Plus outsold the 8. This is the first time that the larger screen iPhone has done better than its smaller sized companion.

After Thanksgiving

These are Localytics estimates for the percentage of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of Wednesday, November 29, which is 12 days after the before-Thanksgiving weekend.

• iPhone 8: 2.22% translates to 17.5 million sold
  • An additional 3.8 million
• iPhone 8 Plus: 2.94% translates to 23.2 million sold
  • An additional 4.6 million
• iPhone X: 2.63% translates to 20.7 million sold
  • An additional 9.5 million

Over the 12-day period, this indicates that there were an additional 17.9 million iPhones sold and in total the estimated number of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of yesterday was 61.3 million. Keep in mind that the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus went on sale in September and had nine selling days in the September quarter so not all of their units that Localytics is seeing were sold in the December quarter.

Post Thanksgiving

These are Localytics estimates for the percentage of iPhone 8’s, 8 Plus’ and X’s that were in use as of Monday, December 11. This is also 12 days from the after-Thanksgiving reading.

• iPhone 8: 2.8% translates to 22.0 million sold
  • An additional 4.6 million
• iPhone 8 Plus: 3.48% translates to 27.4 million sold
  • An additional 4.3 million
• iPhone X: 4.03% translates to 31.7 million sold
  • An additional 11.0 million

When looking at the two 12-day periods the following results can be calculated.

• iPhone 8 sales went from 310,000 to 380,000 per day
• iPhone 8 Plus sales went from 380,000 to 350,000 per day
• iPhone X sales went from 790,000 to 920,000 per day

Latest data

The iPhone 8 Plus is still doing better than the iPhone 8. When you add the higher priced iPhone X into the mix the average selling price or ASP for iPhone’s should move up substantially. This is the most recent data from Localytics.

• iPhone 8: 3.0% translates to 23.6 million sold
  • An additional 1.6 million
• iPhone 8 Plus: 3.69% translates to 29.1 million sold
  • An additional 1.7 million
• iPhone X: 4.03% translates to 35.9 million sold
  • An additional 4.2 million

When looking at the seven days the following results can be calculated.

• iPhone 8 sales went from 380,000 to 220,000 per day
• iPhone 8 Plus sales went from 350,000 to 240,000 per day
• iPhone X sales went from 920,000 to 600,000 per day
• Total daily sales of 1,060,000 per day

What this means for the December quarter

Localytics measures actual iPhones in use so it is probably underestimating the quantities that have been sold since there are a large number wrapped up as Christmas presents. Since that number is very difficult to estimate, besides it being in the millions, one projection that can be made is to take the recent daily sales rate and adjust it down, as it should fall dramatically after December 24.

If you assume a daily rate of 500,000 for the remaining 13 days, the total “sales” of the iPhone 8, 8 Plus and X would be 95 million before adjusting for the 8’s September sales. Apple’s revenue guidance for the December quarter is $84 to $87 billion which should translate to about 80 million iPhones sold in the quarter. While the 88.6 million units in use as of yesterday has to be decreased due to the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus being available in September the company is still selling the iPhone SE, 6s, 6s Plus, 7 and 7 Plus so these will help the company hit its revenue guidance.