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Ready for a 5G Revolution? It'll Be Awhile

According to Strategy Analytics, 5G will only start to make a dent in wireless subscriptions beginning in 2021.

April 26, 2018
Carrier and Network Profiles

5G efforts are ramping up, but it will still be a 4G world for a few more years.

The US and China are in a tight race to be the first country to deploy 5G networks. And within the US, the big four carriers have traded barbs over which will be the first to roll out the next generation beyond LTE, and how best to do it.

The Why Axis Bug However it happens, it will be quite a few years before 5G networks make a dent in terms of the actual number of global subscribers. According to Strategy Analytics, 2017 was the first year that 4G networks rivaled 3G networks in terms of number of global subscribers.

Wireless Subscriptions by Generation (Strategy Analytics)

5G testing may start this year, but 2019 will likely mark the entrance of 5G phones into the marketplace. According to Strategy Analytics, 5G will only start to make a dent in wireless subscriptions beginning in 2021. By 2023, 4G will still be on top in terms of wireless subscriptions, while 2G networks will have well over a billion subscribers—good enough to make it the second most popular wireless network globally after 4G.

How quickly the technology grows in the US will depend on a range of factors, including the footprint of the network and the price of handsets and cellular service.

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For the next few years, we'll probably see US carriers rely on not-quite-5G offerings, like LTE-Advanced and LTE-Advanced Pro. "Combined, these technologies will account for more than half of all 4G LTE connections by mid-2018 and hit 2 billion connections by year end," Strategy Analytics says. "Even with 5G, many devices will still rely on 4G for roaming outside of 5G coverage areas."

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