Intel Notebook CPU Shortage Could Make Positive Impact On DRAM Market For Consumers

Intel has reportedly been fighting a shortage of Whiskey Lake CPUs for the notebook market that will impact shipment numbers across the notebook supplier market. The decline in shipments due to that CPU shortage will also impact the memory market according to TrendForce. Intel’s CPU shortage will decrease notebook shipments to the tune of 0.2% year-over-year. With fewer notebooks shipping, the memory market will also be affected and cause a worsening oversupply in the market.

Intel is being mum about the exact reason behind the CPU shortage. It's also reported that other products are impacted by the shortage including 14nm++ Coffee Lake Refresh and the 14nm+ Coffee Lake CPUs. A shortage at this stage of the game with the Coffee Lake CPUs that have been on the market for six months now is curious with no reason offered by Intel. TrendForce claims that the shortfall in CPUs has increased from 5% in August to 5-10% in September. That shortfall could grow to over 10% in Q4 2018 during the holiday shopping season.

Oversupply in the DRAM market could be a good thing for consumers as falling prices should follow. DRAMeXchange is predicting that prices for PC DRAM products will decline around 2% quarter-over-quarter, but that price decline is expected to grow with the shortage of Intel CPUs impacting the market as well. This will mark the first decline in pricing in a long time as DRAM prices have been climbing in the last nine successive quarters.

Demand for SSDs moving into the end of 2018 is expected to soften as well. Oversupply and price decreases for memory products could get worse if shipments in the server market decline. Migration from the Grantley platform to the Purley platform is taking place right now. Lead time for the Purley parts is increasing placing another dark cloud on the horizon for the DRAM market.