Two Charts for the Apple Bull Case

Ok, there may be more than two charts to dive into, but all the charts are on the same theme. Thanks to Philip Elmer-DeWitt, for helping me get my hands on this data. Merrill Lynch/BofA ran a large global survey that is packed with some fantastic survey data. This study spanned key countries including US, UK, China, and India and ~49,000 respondents. A few data points stood out to me when thinking about the Apple growth story.

Switchers
In our own research at Creative Strategies, we have continually seen strong switching rates from Android to iPhone. Now that most markets are saturated with smartphones, and we know Apple’s share in all the major markets, most of the growth in iPhone units need to come from smartphone owners currently on Android. Apple has been steadily gaining share from Android in the US over the past two years seeing switching rates that vary from 15%-30% depending on the quarter. This new global survey from Merrill Lynch/BofA gives us a new view of this statistic. One that shows the steady flow from Android to iOS.

The chart on the left shows the overall results, isolated by current iPhone owners, who indicated they owned a smartphone other than an iPhone in the last two years. Nearly half (47%), of iPhone owning respondents, stated they owned a smartphone that was not an iPhone in the last two years. The chart on the right shows you by country the same statistic. The UK and US numbers are in line with our research from the areas when you look at the steady percentage of switchers we see in our survey. However, the extremely high numbers in India and China are fascinating. For these markets, I’d like to offer a clarifying point.

The first point I’d make is I would have like to have seen the words “owned and used as primary smartphone” in this question. Just so there is no confusion that the question is specific to the device the consumer owns and used as a primary device. There is often some overlap in China specifically by a segment of users who do own and use both an iPhone and an Android phone. Often these, more affluent consumers, may also switch back and forth between different device platforms just based on what they want in a device more often than other consumers. This may not be a significant factor in the data, but I would have like to make sure.

The second point, which is what I think highlights this growth opportunity, is that both China and India have the shortest upgrade cycles than any other major market tracked. Each market shows a less than two-year upgrade cycle with 48% of consumers in India saying they upgrade every year! The general low-cost of smartphones in India is a factor, but the main point is as consumers in these markets upgrade more frequently, Apple is right there to compete for their business more often than in markets where smartphone upgrade cycles are lengthening.

Apple’s Long Thesis in Emerging Markets Quantified
I believe my thesis for Apple’s long-term strategy for emerging markets is very similar to Apple’s. It stems from what Apple saw in China as the emerging middle class grew, rapidly, and Apple is starting seeing the rise of more affluent consumers start to gravitate to their products. I’ve written at length why India is very different from China, and how Apple needs to play a slightly different game there, but the underlying thesis should still apply.

This survey data seemed to confirm, which should be obvious, that willingness to spend more on a smartphone is closely tied to income. Note this chart and the underlying paragraph from the study.

One has to imagine that time is on Apple’s side and as a market rises in economic strength and generates more affluent consumers that those consumers see less loyalty to Android and Android brands and start considering an iPhone. On this point, Apple’s two-part strategy of selling previous models at competitive prices, and supporting legacy devices longer helps Apple offer products that are closer to the budgets of cost-sensitive consumers in many markets. What is also helping position them well is their efforts in custom silicon that allows a two-year-old iPhone to still be competitive on specs with current generation Android devices at sub ~$500 prices, and sometimes higher.

While these are just a few data points that create a strong bull case growth story for Apple, they are two crucial foundations that we don’t often see quantified this way. That’s why out of all the data points they stuck out to me as some of the most interesting.

Published by

Ben Bajarin

Ben Bajarin is a Principal Analyst and the head of primary research at Creative Strategies, Inc - An industry analysis, market intelligence and research firm located in Silicon Valley. His primary focus is consumer technology and market trend research and he is responsible for studying over 30 countries. Full Bio

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