How Apple’s New Growth Engine Will Fuel 48% Stock Gain

Despite crashing as much as 10% from a closing high set just over a month ago and losing its $1 trillion market-capitalization crown, tech behemoth Apple Inc. (AAPL) is poised for a big rebound, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives. “We continue to encourage investors to see the forest through the trees on this name and view last week as the first step in the ultimate re-rating of the stock higher over the coming years,” wrote Ives, reaffirming his $310 price target on Apple’s stock, according to Barron’s, implying 48% upside.

Apple vs. Fellow FAANG Stocks

Source: CNN Money, as of 4pm EST 11/07

Ives’ bullish forecast, which is based on what he sees as strength in Apple’s services businesses, flies in the face of Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s downgrade of Apple’s shares at the end of last week. The downgrade followed the iPhone maker’s bleak earnings outlook that fell short of Wall Street expectations.

What It Means

Urging “investors not to lose sight of the massive metamorphosis on the horizon at Apple being led by the services business,” Ives predicted that Apple’s service offerings, including the App Store, Apple Music, and Apple Pay, would all grow annually by a rate of 20%. He also expects sales from these service businesses to rise more than $50 billion by fiscal year 2020.

Apple Has Big Upside

Source: Wedbush Securities, Barron’s; as of 4pm EST 11/07

Valuing Apple’s service businesses at anywhere between $400 billion and $500 billion, he added that the company currently has an active installed base of 1.3 billion devices capable of being monetized.

What’s Next

While Apple’s services may have some strong future potential, investors will want to keep a close watch on how rising interest rates may affect the company’s stock, as higher rates can make borrowing more expensive for growing companies and they also tend to make bond investments increasingly more attractive compared to equity investments.

Additionally, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s concerns, including slower app-store revenue growth, next-quarter guidance implying weaker-than-expected iPhone sales, and weaker growth in emerging markets due to a stronger dollar, will also weigh on investors’ decisions. “We see increased risk from a weaker macroeconomic environment,” wrote Wamsi Mohan, one of the bank’s analysts, in a recent note.