Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL): Set To Experience A Decrease In Earnings?

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Looking at Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) earnings update in March 2019, analyst consensus outlook seem pessimistic, with earnings expected to decline by 5.4% in the upcoming year against the past 5-year average growth rate of 6.3%. With trailing-twelve-month net income at current levels of US$60b, the consensus growth rate suggests that earnings will decline to US$56b by 2020. Below is a brief commentary around Apple's earnings outlook going forward, which may give you a sense of market sentiment for the company. Readers that are interested in understanding the company beyond these figures should research its fundamentals here.

View our latest analysis for Apple

Can we expect Apple to keep growing?

Longer term expectations from the 39 analysts covering AAPL’s stock is one of positive sentiment. Given that it becomes hard to forecast far into the future, broker analysts tend to project ahead roughly three years. To understand the overall trajectory of AAPL's earnings growth over these next fews years, I've fitted a line through these analyst earnings forecast to determine an annual growth rate from the slope.

NasdaqGS:AAPL Past and Future Earnings, July 30th 2019
NasdaqGS:AAPL Past and Future Earnings, July 30th 2019

This results in an annual growth rate of 2.8% based on the most recent earnings level of US$60b to the final forecast of US$60b by 2022. EPS reaches $13.91 in the final year of forecast compared to the current $12.01 EPS today. This high rate of growth of revenue squeezes margins, as analysts predict an upcoming margin contraction from the current 22% to 20% by the end of 2022.

Next Steps:

Future outlook is only one aspect when you're building an investment case for a stock. For Apple, I've compiled three key aspects you should further research:

  1. Financial Health: Does it have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

  2. Valuation: What is Apple worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether Apple is currently mispriced by the market.

  3. Other High-Growth Alternatives : Are there other high-growth stocks you could be holding instead of Apple? Explore our interactive list of stocks with large growth potential to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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