Although you can already get a non-gray-market iPhone in Hong Kong, the question of exactly when the device will be widely available in China remains unanswered. Rumors about both China Mobile and China Unicom carrying the device have appeared at various points in time. However, according to a recent Macworld piece, China Unicom or China Telecom may be better choices than China Mobile, since technology and culture issue could make the carrier a poor partner for Apple.
The editorial seems to have been sparked by the latest Chinese carrier rumor, which appeared last week and described Apple and China Mobile as being almost done with a distribution deal. Such a deal that could be a bad move for Apple, says Steven Schwankert, since China Mobile has a different corporate culture than other, smaller carriers that Apple has picked for iPhone distribution. China Mobile has a significant share of the mobile market, but its large share may mean the company is resistant to go the extra mile for Apple. Up-and-coming carriers like China Unicom and China Telecom would be better choices, argues Schwankert, and may be willing to collaborate more closely with Apple or give the company better terms.
Culture aside, China Mobile's 3G technology could also cause problems for Apple. The carrier is using the TD-SCDMA standard for 3G data access, but the iPhone 3G doesn't support it. If China Mobile were to distribute the iPhone, Apple would either need to switch 3G chips or produce special iPhones for the Chinese market. China Telecom and China Unicom both have plans to use 3G standards that the iPhone already supports (CDMA2000 and WCDMA, respectively), making them even more attractive to Apple.
With at least one of those two items in the negative column for China Mobile, it seems a little unlikely that the carrier will be tapped for iPhone duty in China. Stranger things have happened, though, but until there's an official announcement from Apple or one of the three carriers, I think it's safe to assume that the Chinese distribution deal is still very much up for grabs.
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