Flurry used data collected from more than 140,000 apps running on smart devices worldwide to get a picture of how many iOS and Android devices ran apps over the last 30 days. Flurry counted recently used devices for this data. It’s no surprise that among the top 20 countries, the U.S. still makes up the largest chunk of the world’s active installed base, with 109 million out of 264 million, or 41%. But what’s interesting is that China and South Korea now hold two of the top five positions, which notches them above more developed countries such as Japan, France and Germany.
Flurry also explored countries that have large untapped consumers capable of jumping into the smart device market, basing its numbers on International Monetary Fund (IMF) numbers and income from a study by Miller-McCune. What they discovered is that China, India and Brazil make up three of the top five market opportunities. Just looking at China, that country has 122 million consumers who do not yet use an iPhone or Android device, but could afford one. As these emerging countries modernize, they will help Apple and Android further expand their penetration around the globe.
Looking ahead to growth potential, Flurry found that many of the world’s largest countries have largely un-penetrated markets, primarily due to standards of living (emerging markets) or increased competition for consumers’ disposable income (developed markets). For example, the U.S. has both the largest current installed base and market upside because of its unique, well-penetrated and large, affluent population. China, given its very large population (1.3 billion), along with a growing middle class who has already begun adopting smart devices, has the world’s second largest market potential. In contrast, even though India has the world’s second largest population (1.2 billion), its TAM is much smaller than China’s because of India’s very low standard of living. Even though its total population is not far behind China’s, its total addressable market is and the adoption of smartphones and tablets among its TAM has been small. Japan, the world’s fourth largest market, has a lot of upside given light penetration of iOS and Anroid devices against its large, addressable market.
According to Flurry research, 2012 is shaping up to be a very good year for both Apple and Google. The world’s estimated middle class now totals 1.8 billion, which means there are that many consumers capable of making the leap to a smart device in the new year or beyond. Consumers have been buying tablets and smartphones at a record pace in 2011, and that trend is expected to continue in 2012. This is equally good news for developers, who build apps for these platforms, and directly benefit from their installed base growth. This is good news for more than just Google and Apple. Hardware makers who are constantly pushing out new devices will benefit, as well as game developers, who will be able to tap into a broader global audience down the line. NVIDIA, which has new Tegra 3 Android tablets entering the market in 2012, will also be a winner from this global expansion.
