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Fork In The Road For Apple?

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This article is more than 10 years old.

When Apple (AAPL) rolled over on Monday the chart looked horrible. As of  December 5th the threat became a reality.

Have we had the Apple dead cat bounce? I would, of course, say so.

For both the bulls and bears here is the scenario that Apple finds itself in.

Firstly, the bad news.

Bears see this:

For a start this puts Apple back on its long term trend, so if you are technically minded it is hard not to see that as reasonable.

Of course, it’s a shocker because that would mean Apple will shed $300 billion in value, more than what all but a handful of companies are worth.

We could play fun with numbers and list how many and which companies in the S&P 500 this equates to but here is a list of the 25 biggest U.S. listed from ADVFN’s U.S. Screener and you can have fun with it yourself.

So far Apple has almost lost a whole Google in value and in the last few weeks has lost a lot more than Warren Buffett has taken his whole lifetime to build up.

A bear would say “that’s how bubbles work.”

So what would a bull see, or rather pray for?

This is the shape of salvation:

My last piece suggested we would get a “dead cat bounce” and being a bear I now expect to see a drop, but that won’t make it so. It looks like we are up for a Santa Rally, but an Apple investor panic could take some reversing even if St. Nick does come down the flu.

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