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Tech Guru Mark Anderson's Top 10 Predictions For 2013

This article is more than 10 years old.

One of the hallmarks of the Strategic News Service, the always fascinating tech newsletter published by Mark Anderson, are the predictions. Right at the top of every issue the publication says it is "the most accurate predictive letter in computing and telecommunications, read by industry leaders worldwide."

And so I bring you Mark's list of his top 10 predictions for 2013, as published in the latest edition of the newsletter.

1. "CarryAlongs" Dominate Global Computer Markets. This category of pads and slates takes its rightful place as the largest market segment of computing devices.

2. Intel: Long Live the King, the King is Dead. The chip royalty ladder is flipped, as Intel becomes increasingly irrelevant in the world of general computing, while CarryAlong and mobile chipmakers (led by Qualcomm and ARM) are the new William and Kate.

3. Net TV Dominates. A majority of U.S.-based homes will have Net-connected TVs, with other developed nations quickly following as bandwidth allows.

4. The LTE vs. Fiber Battle Creates Regional Revolutions in Broadband. Customers choosing broadband LTE in DSL-served regions will be paying more and getting more; but those choosing LTE in fiber-served regions will be paying more for wireless broadband but getting less. The LTE vs. fiber fight will define the telecoms business-model battle for the coming decade.

5. Google Gets Its Mojo Back. Facebook is tired and nosy, Apple is Steve-less, Microsoft is Microsoft, and Amazon is the only other game in town. Google's efforts in email, video, smartphones, maps, and driverless cars open up new long-term expansion paths, with more to follow. With all its many failures, the company has proven it can find and plough new turf. In terms of creativity, Google becomes the next Apple. Now it must learn about product support or risk losing it all to competitors.

6. The Driverless Car Becomes a Serious and Competitive Global Project, with multiple new states and countries passing laws to allow it, and major brands undertaking serious development of all the features that will one day lead to common acceptance.

7. e-Books Are The Books. Total e-book sales in dollars will beat adult paperback sales in 2013, and their differential growth rates will exceed 30%, as e-books continue their ramp toward dominating the entire market.

8. Enterprise IT Struggles to achieve very modest gains, with executive purchase decisions captured between large cash holdings, increased Asian competition, and their own poorly performing customers. Although "big data" is the marketing cry, vendors in this market will find a general reluctance to spend. 2013 looks like another defensive year, except for the security segment, with no serious enterprise Windows 8 adoption and not much else going on. The screws are already tightened.

9. "Hacktivist" efforts acquire an important and permanent role in political transparency, moving from the level of annoyance to becoming an important, long-term part of the international political and security landscape.

10. Supply Chain Security Becomes a Major Factor in Global Technology Purchases. Starting with the high-security risk offerings from Huawei, the feeling of cyber unease on the part of inventing nations grows, and has a material effect on vendor market share among countries that can afford to prioritize their infrastructure security over short-term price advantage. Recognition that today's supply chains are virtually all compromised will lead to plant relocations and a new set of business opportunities for onshore component makers.

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