Cihra expects global PC shipments to be flat in 2013 after a 3% year-over-year drop in 2012. For the fourth quarter, he's expecting a 2% rise sequentially, but a 5% drop from a year ago.
"Much of the supply-chain looks to have needed to under-ship end PCs for a second consecutive quarter of inventory drawdown," he writes. "Pressures continue to include weak macro and more so tablet cannibalization. Early ultrabooks have been stymied by high prices and Win8 so far looks like a remarkable non-factor."
He does see some reasons for hope for 2013' among other things, he thinks the product cycles that were supposed to help this but didn't - ultraboks and Windows 8 - could ultimately boost sales. He adds that China is an "upside swing factor," noting that he's now seeing "a constructive tone and expectations for soem rebound in China's PC growth."
OK, back to the chip stocks. Here's a quick look at Evercore's estimate cuts today on the chip makers:
- Intel: Wang cuts his Q4 view to $13.39 billion in revenue and profits of 44 cents a share, down from $13.6 billion and 46 cents. For 2013, he goes to $53.4 billion and $1.85 a share form $54 billion and $1.90.
- AMD: For Q4, he goes to $1.13 billion and a loss of 14 cents a share, from $1.15 billion and a loss of 13 cents. For 2013, he now sees $4.8 billion and a loss of 18 cents a share, down from $4.87 billion and a loss of 15 cents.
- Nvidia: For FY Q4, Wang now sees revenue of $1.07 billion and profits of 21 cents a share, down from $1.09 billion and 22 cents. For FY 2014, he sees $4.3 billion and a profit of 85 cents a share, down from $4.4 billion and 88 cents.
