There are predictions based on hocus pocus, on pure hokum, and on sheer chutzpah, and for which a grain of salt, not to mention sheer naiveté, are required. Then, again, there are predictions based on more solid foundation, be it facts, analytical models, or some other rational rationale. It is this category of prediction to which I subscribe, specifically when it comes to making predictions about brands. Given it’s that time of year (and, that I’m as much a traditionalist as a rationalist), I thought I’d pass along my two cents on which brands I believe will keep their edge in 2013.
The rational rationale for my predictions is the general rule of thumb for what gives any brand the best chance for success these days. Or, actually it’s three rules of thumb. First of all, all brands with an edge get the basics right. They deliver as promised down to even the simplest, most overlooked things. Target, for example, doesn’t just keep offering up the latest looks in fashion and household goods for less, the aisles of its stores are wide and clutter-free making cart navigation easy, there are plenty of registers at the front of the store for quick check-out, and there is always a “red shirt” nearby to help you find what you’re looking for. Target takes the table stakes as seriously as the higher level branding factors and it shows.
Second, and closely associated with the first rule of thumb, is that brands with an edge orchestrate the entire brand experience efficiently and effectively. They don’t just do one thing right and assume customers will stand up and cheer , they ensure everything from soup to nuts is done well. Take Zappos, for instance. The stellar reputation of this online store for shoes and more is based on the sum of its parts, from the depth and breadth of its inventory, to its user-friendly web site, to its uber-friendly customer service, including its super-easy return process. Ask anyone who has bought a pair of shoes from Zappos and the word “awesome” will most likely come up in the description of their experience with the brand.
The third rule of thumb by which one can (cautiously) predict that a brand will keep its edge is that it remains authentic, or true to its core message in everything it does. Yes, yes, I know this word can be overused, if not misused, by branding people, but when used, well, authentically, it’s a critical factor in what makes for a brand’s success. Consumers are both savvier and more skeptical than ever before. If they sense that something about a brand just doesn’t feel real, they’ll let the world know about real fast. A company that tries for present itself as “cool” simply by aligning itself with cool celebrities, much like Kodak did a couple of years back when it brought in hip-hop stars Pitbull, Rihanna and Trey Songz to tout its new camera, is totally not cool. It’s like a nerdy guy going to a frat party filled with football heroes thinking all the girls will assume he’s a football hero. More than ever before, a brand must stay true to its values and not try to be something it’s not.
So, my predictions for which brands will stay out in front in 2013, in addition to Target and Zappos, based on these three key rules? Here goes:
1. Chobani: One might have thought there was no room left in the yogurt aisle for another Greek-style product. One might have thought that there was no innovative thinking to be had in the food category in general, a pretty slow-growth arena. Those who thought those thoughts haven’t tried Chobani, or haven’t looked at the company’s sales numbers. They also haven’t looked at this brand with respect to my rules of thumb. It’s a great tasting product, which is a pretty basic requirement for any food. Its other branding touch points, from its extra-large cup and fresh, shiny packaging, to the inventive flavors like pomegranate and pineapple, to its line extensions like Chobani Champions for kids and Chobani Bites, small 100-calorie cups perfect for a quick, delicious snack, are consistent with its promise. And, its name (the Greek word for shepherd), along with its rich and creamy texture, hit the authenticity key to the tune of over $1 billion in annual sales. Not bad for a company just going into its sixth year.
2. Panera: One might have thought there was no room left in the fast food category, let alone new thoughts to think about the category, that is until Panera came along. The reason for its success is simple: It has differentiated itself as a fast food restaurant by serving up healthy and very tasty menu choices at an affordable price point, and doing so within a warm and stylish atmosphere. The setting is light and airy, the seating is comfortable, the visual merchandising is artfully done, and the food is served on real dishware, not in paper wrappers or on plastic plates. Basics done right? Check. Consistent experience from menu to venue, not matter where the venue, be it California or Colorado? Check. Authentically fresh-baked bread and artisanal salads and sandwiches? Check. Sales trending upward? Absolutely. Check for yourself.
3. Bond, James Bond: Not sure if you saw Skyfall. Great movie. Not sure if you’re aware that James Bond is a brand. Great brand, even after 50 years. Why? See my three rules of thumb. Every Bond movie gets the basics right, from the iconic 007 logo, to the iconic music, the bulletproof story line, the exotic locations, the foes we love to hate, and, of course, the martinis, shaken not stirred. Every movie is consistently orchestrated and executed from the gripping opening scenes to the boy-gets-girl ending, to meet our highest Bond brand expectations. And, authentic? This solid franchise continues to ensure Bond, be it Connery or Craig, is on-brand from his tuxedos to his technological toys to his lady friends. Can’t wait to see what the Broccoli franchise has in store for us in the coming year.
4. Amazon: What happens when you have more than tens of millions of items – and counting - for sale, you have more than 8 million customers whose individual needs you do your absolute best to meet, and you do whatever it takes to make the sales process as easy and convenient as possible? You keep your edge as a brand. Amazon is one of the greatest brand success stories of all time and for all the right reasons. (See three rules of thumb, above, along with the adage, “The customer is always right.”.) Enough said.
5. Apple: This brand doesn’t have tens of millions of unique things for sale, but it has sold tens of millions of all i-things - and counting. Despite its most recent Apple Maps faux pas, despite the passing of its legendary founder, Steve Jobs, Apple continues to get the formula for leading edge brand right. Its “basics” set the standard for the categories in which it competes. It consistently and beautifully orchestrates the brand experience from product design and functionality, to packaging, to advertising. And there is no doubt that when you use anything Apple, it’s the real deal. And, while the differences between phone and even tablet features continue to shrink from one company to the next, I believe Apple’s future success as a brand will be driven by software and software integration that will make life more fun, easier and more easily shared. Apple, above any other rule of thumb, is about innovation – knowing what people want before they can even tell you. My sixth sense tells me this is not going to change anytime soon.
6. Toyota: Okay, I know about the lawsuit that ended up with Toyota paying out millions over an accelerator issue. But, hear me out. Despite this setback, and despite the enormous setback in 2008 as a result of the horrific tsunami disaster, Toyota will have sold 9.7 million vehicles in 2012, overtaking General Motors and every other automobile manufacturer. More than this, its gas-electric Prius model topped Consumer Reports annual list of Best Values for the first time, stating that the car’s cost to operate is about half that of conventional vehicles. Just as innovation matters in the tech category, it matters in the auto category and Toyota, while buckling down on the basics and every other rule of brand ascendency, is nothing, if not inventive in its thinking. My forecast is that the brand will continue to own the road in 2013.
7. Downton Abbey: Six Emmys. Millions of viewers of every age. Its first season was a phenomenon when it arrived on the American telly. It continues to fascinate as an entertainment vehicle and as a brand for many reasons. It’s nailed the basics, from the superb production values, to the strong story lines that keep our interest week after week with family intrigue and old-fashioned romance. It’s consistent in execution inclusive of its beautifully cast of players and their pitch-perfect dialogue. And, as for authenticity, dare you even ask? The sweeping green lawns, the fresh-cut flowers, the polished dinnerware, and the costumes. Every detail is in place as if attended to by Mr. Bates, the valet, himself. Stay tuned. My prediction is that Downton Abbey will be a ratings favorite for the foreseeable future, whether you catch it on your local PBS station, Netflix or your iPad.
While making predictions about brands is sort of like making predictions about stocks, I do think that there are rational underpinnings that make doing so a bit more realistic than, say, arranging your schedule based on the Mayan calendar. In any event, these are my predictions, not guarantees. Consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. And, Happy New Year!
