Of all of Apple's products—really of all tech products ever—the iPhone has commanded ordinary consumer's attention and earned their intimacy. According to Trefis, the iPhone itself is responsible for 50% of Apple's stock price. People love their iPads, too, but that's just not as intimate a connection.
Your watch, though, is even closer to you physically then your phone, in full skin contact all day long. And yet, consumers are curious but not clamoring for an iWatch from Apple. Google Glass, which might seem like a longer shot because it's such a new concept, seem to have more actual consumer support than an iWatch. And now that attention is shifting to the rumored August release of the iPhone 5S, the iWatch seems to be slipping back off the table.
Why such lukewarm interest? I think the reason is that beyond the most obvious things (text based alerts and statuses of various kinds and, of course, telling the time) it has not been demonstrated what the software of such a device would actually do for us. Once upon a time, the love of Apple was so great that we didn't need to see any demonstration. We assumed that whatever software was loaded on and available for an "i" device would be the best and most user friendly. Apple maps, for one, has disabused us of that notion, and with it the instant aura of future Apple products.
Let's take some real world examples of what we could do through a watch-scaled interface. First there's the example above where I simply mashed up a Nest learning thermostat onto an existing iWatch prototype. Nest has invested heavily in their user interface. Although some of the more detailed functions are only available through its mobile app, there is a surprising number of things you can do through its 1.75" diameter screen. This is a bit larger than an iWatch screen might be, by a bit, but the amount of information that can be communicated is similar. But as cool as the Nest's interface is, do we really need to keep tabs on our home heating system from our wrists? Not at all clear.
How about the quantified self? A natural, right? Always on, always on you, perfect! Maybe, but the Fitbit Flex may solve for these kind of data in a more unobtrusive way.
I have suggested that the iWatch might follow Apple's current obsession with the circle (see its plans for a new, Steve Jobs-imagined "spaceship" campus in Cupertino) and be round instead of a scaled-down iSquare or iRectangle. Such a device could usher in a new kind of time-based user interface, similar to David Gelernter's Lifestreams. But do we trust Apple to filter our stream for us at this point? Google Maps for iPhone delivers more immediate utility about information of great complexity than anything Apple has designed, ever. And already, in its infancy, Google Glass gives you a way to take first-person HD video unobtrusively, use those Google Maps safely while driving and translate words into Chinese instantly. Calling Dick Tracy. You picking up?
So we are at a crossroads. Why didn't the chicken cross the road? Because it was still an egg! Without a truly compelling software idea, the iWatch is not a must-have product. And without the solid promise of a compelling product, the software developers that Apple will need to make the killer apps will spend their time on other, more fruitful problems.
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