DigiTimes is reporting that the iPad’s Mini shipments are being cut to between 10 and 12 million units for the June quarter based on information from multiple component suppliers.
Key Takeaway: While these types of datapoints can be inaccurate or may indicate new product transition it could be one of the reasons the stock has been weak today in a positive market.
Key Takeaway: End of the quarter window dressing by portfolio managers could be another reason for the weakness since this is the last trading day of the quarter. If the stock remains weak on Thursday then how it trades early next week will be important to watch to see if PMs decide to get back into the shares before it reports later in the month.
Apple sold 17 million iPads in the June quarter last year, and Pacific Crest cut its June quarter iPad estimate to 15 million this week. If Apple is planning for 10-12 million iPad Mini’s in the quarter (shipments do not necessarily translate to sales due to timing but lets use these numbers for now) then for total iPad sales to be flat year over year at 17 million regular iPads sales would be between 5 and 7 million. This seems to be a fairly doable number.
While competition is increasing another way to estimate June quarter shipments is to look at a June quarter vs. the previous December quarter (takes out the seasonal March quarter downturn). I currently have 18 million in my model which would be a 21% decline from the December 2012 quarter vs. the two previous years when there were 26% and 10% increases, respectively. The reason for iPads to decline is due to the strength of the iPad Mini as holiday gifts in the first quarter it was available.
| (thousands) | Dec. Qtr. | June Qtr. | % Change |
| 2010/2011 | 7,331 | 9,246 | 26% |
| 2011/2012 | 15,434 | 17,042 | 10% |
| 2012/2013 | 22,860 | 18,000 | (21)% |
Disclosure: My family and I own Apple shares.
