Fortune reporter Philip Elmer-Dewitt compiles sell-side and independent analysts forecasts on Apple. He has gathered 56 projections that have an average of 18.4 million iPads sold from the Street analysts and 17.7 billion from the independent analysts. The median for all of them is 18 million, which would be 53% growth from last year’s 11.8 million and down 21% from December’s quarter.
CJ Takeaway: The 8.7 million iPad range is almost half of December quarter’s 15.2 million (16.8 million to 32 million) which I believe is largely driven by Apple’s new guidance philosophy of giving a range for revenue vs. a single point. This has obtained one of the company’s objectives of not having expectations get so high that they could not be achieved let alone exceeded.
Source: Fortune magazine Philip Elmer-DeWitt
While it is never easy to project the actual number of any product that is sold there are a number of items that add complexity to this quarter’s iPad’s estimate.
- How much of a falloff will there be in iPad Mini sales?
- Android tablets are of much better quality than a year ago at lower prices than an iPad. Are they starting to have an impact?
- How are sales to businesses doing?
- While there hasn’t been a lot of speculation of new iPads there is some chatter. How many people are delaying until new products are available?
I am at 17 million iPads, which would be a 44% growth rate from the prior years 11.8 million and a million below the median’s 18 million. With an average selling price (ASP) of $450 (vs. $467 in the December quarter) the iPad represents 18% of my total revenue projection of $42.5 billion (guidance is a range of $41 billion to $43 billion and the Street’s $42.7 billion).
Source: Fortune magazine Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Disclosure: My family and I own Apple shares
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