Why Windows 8 Is Such A Crucial Step For Microsoft

Windows 8 is not Microsoft 's first rodeo, but it's the most important version of the operating system since Windows 3.0 when it comes to the future of Microsoft. If Microsoft succeeds, it will cement its position atop the tech pyramid for another generation. If it fails, the next generation may regard Windows as a fond memory like floppy disks.

Is that a tad sensational? Perhaps. I took issue earlier this year when one of my fellow Forbes contributors, Adam Hartung, predicted the imminent demise of Microsoft. I still think Hartung was being overly hyperbolic about the situation, and I don't agree that Microsoft itself will crumble to the ground. But, if Microsoft doesn't get Windows 8 right, it's quite possible that its days of PC operating system dominance are numbered.

The difference between Windows 8, and every other version of Windows dating back to Windows 3.0, is that Microsoft is facing competition other than itself for the first time. There has been backlash and dissent with virtually every release of the Windows operating system. People don't like change, and they love to complain about it. Despite marginal challengers like Linux or Mac OS X, though, Windows maintained a virtual monopoly on a growing PC market. It was a sort of self-perpetuating cycle where the dominance of the Windows operating system assured the continued dominance of the Windows operating system.

That's inertia. We'll call it "ecosystem inertia". The world is so heavily invested in the Windows ecosystem that jumping ship to another platform is a massive undertaking. People depend on software and hardware built for Windows, so switching means not just learning a new operating system, but also purchasing and learning a variety of other tools as well. Businesses would have to replace entire network environments, custom software, and peripherals they've relied on for years. It can be done. Many do make the switch. But, not enough to pose an actual threat to Microsoft.

That same ecosystem inertia is what has sustained BlackBerry thus far. Businesses invested in the BlackBerry ecosystem, and built entire environments around BlackBerry. When iOS and Android appeared, BlackBerry was knocked off its pedestal and plummeted from the top of the smartphone food chain. If not for ecosystem inertia, BlackBerry would probably have gone extinct, but because businesses were reluctant to give up on their investment in the mobile platform, it has managed to survive, albeit as a mere shadow of its former glory.

That ecosystem inertia is also working against the potential success of the Windows Phone platform. Windows Phone is a solid, well-designed mobile operating system. It could, and should, be competing on a more level playing field against iOS and Android. But, Microsoft took its time with the transition from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone, and by the time Windows Phone launched most of the potential customers had already chosen sides and invested in either the iOS or Android ecosystem. People already bought apps, subscribed to services, and acquired cases, chargers, and other peripheral devices unique to their chosen mobile platform. As great as Windows Phone might be, switching requires a much bigger commitment than just choosing to use a different mobile OS.

What has changed, then? If Windows has benefited all these years from ecosystem inertia, and Microsoft has only really had to compete with the previous version of Windows for more than two decades, why is there suddenly some sort of existential threat to the continued dominance of Windows? Simple. For the first time in decades the concept of the "PC" is changing.

Smartphones and tablets have fundamentally changed how and where we do our "personal computing". Some have dubbed it the end of the PC, or the "post-PC era". It's not. It's just an evolution of the PC. A PC may not be a tablet, but a tablet is a personal computer. We can debate the finer points of whether an iPad or an Android tablet can truly replace a desktop computer. I concede that there are a great many things that can't be done on a tablet. But, the vast majority of what people use a computer for--email, Web surfing, social networking, online shopping, and even business and productivity tasks--can be accomplished on a tablet as well.

Whatever you want to call it, the tablet revolution has upset Microsoft's ecosystem inertia. In a few short years, tablets have managed to shift momentum away from Windows PCs more than Mac OS X or Linux had in the previous 20. PC sales, or at least sales of traditional desktop and laptop PCs, are in decline. That leaves Microsoft with a choice to either shift gears and embrace the evolution of the PC, or quietly accept its fate as a dinosaur of the PC era.

Windows 8 is Microsoft's attempt to shift gears. In its current state, Windows 8 has a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde split personality. In many ways it literally feels like two separate operating systems--the traditional Windows we're all familiar with, and the new mobile, touch-enabled version. It's not a seamless transition, but it's a step in the right direction. It's a baby step, but it's a crucial step for Microsoft because if it succeeds it can get ecosystem inertia back on its side.

As successful as tablets have been, they're still not PCs. Using them as a mobile counterpart to a traditional PC often requires some sort of duct tape and chewing gum solution to try and access the tools necessary or keep data in sync between the tablet and PC. Replacing a PC completely with a tablet involves abandoning the Windows ecosystem entirely, and jumping through hoops to find equivalent apps and devices to mirror the PC experience.

However, Windows 8 makes it possible to have both at once. A Windows 8 tablet like the Surface Pro, or the Dell Latitude 10, or the Samsung Series 7 Slate is literally a Windows 8 PC in a tablet form. It still runs the same software and connects to the same Windows ecosystem while you're sitting at a desk. While its connected to an external monitor, keyboard, mouse, printer, and other peripherals there is functionally no difference between a Windows 8 tablet and a traditional Windows 8 desktop or laptop PC.

The difference is that this Windows 8 PC straddles the line in the evolution of the PC. You can also take this one with you when you leave your desk, and enjoy the unique benefits of a mobile tablet experience. Yet, you don't have to struggle to find equivalent apps or figure out how to keep information synced with your PC, because the tablet is your PC. It's the best of both worlds.

The PC evolved, so Microsoft evolved the Windows operating system to adapt. If Windows 8 succeeds, ecosystem inertia will be back in Microsoft's favor, and the existing investment in the Windows ecosystem will help drive the continued success of Windows-based devices.