Fortune reporter Philip Elmer-Dewitt compiles sell-side and independent analysts forecasts on
I am expecting 3.9 million unit sales which would be down 1% from March quarter’s 3.95 million units and down 3% year over year. This would still be the third highest number of Macs sold in a June quarter after 3.95 million in 2011 (when 9.2 million iPads were sold) and 4.02 million in 2012 (when 17 million iPads were sold).
While Macs have only been generating 10% to 18% of Apple’s total revenue the past six quarters it does generate $5 to $6.5 billion in nicely profitable revenue per quarter. In fiscal 2012 Macs generated $23 billion in revenue and benefit from users wanting to standardize in the Apple ecosystem.
Gartner has worldwide PC sales down 11% year over year with Apple’s U.S. unit sales down 4% at 1.74 million units. IDC has worldwide PC sales down 11% year over year with Apple’s U.S. unit sales only down 1% at 1.81 million units.
Source: Fortune magazine Philip Elmer-DeWitt
The key to how many Macs Apple sold in the quarter are:
- Supply should be back in sync after the Mac line was updated in the December quarter and there were supply constraints in the March quarter
- How much did iPad sales cannabilize Mac sales
- In the four quarters prior to the iPad being launched Mac unit sales in the June quarter increased between 9% and 18% quarter over quarter and for three of the years the increase was 16% to 18%
- Last year unit sales were essentially flat quarter over quarter when there were 17 million iPads sold
- My 3.9 million estimate is a decrease of 1% year over year with a projection of 20 million iPads sold.
I am estimating Macs to generate $5.3 billion in revenue which is 15% of my $36 billion in total revenue. The 15% of total revenue would be the highest since the December 2012 quarter.
Source: Fortune magazine Philip Elmer-DeWitt
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